3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 5 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| San Diego at Miami |
+6.5 |
+22% |
-13% |
SD |
2.5 |
SD |
5.5 |
Miami |
35% |
| Chicago at Detroit |
+3.5 |
+14% |
-18% |
CHI |
13.5 |
CHI |
3.5 |
Detroit |
32% |
| Cincinnati at Dallas |
-17 |
-8% |
+19% |
DAL |
4.0 |
DAL |
3.0 |
Cincinnati |
27% |
| Washington at Philadelphia |
-5.5 |
-13% |
+12% |
PHI |
2.5 |
PHI |
9.5 |
Washington |
25% |
| Tennessee at Baltimore |
+3 |
+0% |
+17% |
BAL |
6.0 |
BAL |
14.0 |
Tennessee |
17% |
| Seattle at N.Y. Giants |
-7 |
-1% |
+11% |
NYG |
8.0 |
NYG |
5.0 |
Seattle |
12% |
| Indianapolis at Houston |
+3 |
+0% |
-9% |
IND |
8.0 |
IND |
8.0 |
Houston |
9% |
| Minnesota at New Orleans |
-3 |
+5% |
+14% |
NO |
6.0 |
NO |
4.0 |
Minnesota |
9% |
| Buffalo at Arizona |
-1 |
+20% |
+12% |
BUF |
6.0 |
ARI |
4.0 |
Arizona |
8% |
| Kansas City at Carolina |
-9.5 |
-7% |
-2% |
CAR |
7.5 |
CAR |
10.5 |
Kansas City |
5% |
| Atlanta at Green Bay |
-3.5 |
-6% |
-4% |
ATL |
2.5 |
GB |
1.5 |
Atlanta |
2% |
| New England at San Francisco |
+3 |
-4% |
-2% |
SF |
8.0 |
SF |
3.0 |
New England |
2% |
| Pittsburgh at Jacksonville |
-4 |
-9% |
-11% |
PIT |
11.0 |
JAX |
1.0 |
Jacksonville |
2% |
| Tampa Bay at Denver |
-3 |
+5% |
+4% |
DEN |
2.0 |
DEN |
9.0 |
Denver |
1% |
|
