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Maxwell Report
Biography: Maxwell
I'm a mathematician who fell into NFL forecasting through a beer bet. I worked with a bunch of jocks who bet me, the resident computer geek, a case of Coors that I could not write an algorithm that could beat them in an NFL picking contest. To make it even more interesting, Coors in those days was not sold across the Mississippi (they even made a movie about it with Burt Reynolds) and thusly darned expensive. By Thanksgiving, they were cursing Dallas (one of my picks) and crying in MY beer: I had beat them with a single factor equation based on yards per point with no home field advantage that never really worked again.
Flash forward to today and I've got a multi-factor model based on everything I can think to throw into the hopper and it has worked almost every NFL year (two recent exceptions: 1997 and 2005 when it was 51% and 52%). Now mind you, I have toiled in the off-season and the latest iteration betters those results in "backcasting" to some 55% each. And while early versions of the model have performed at the 57-58% level for a number of years (since about '94) in season, the latest version gets those results above 60%.
So, TMW has graciously allowed me to post my picks for this year, and I hope to not disappoint. But caution is in order, usually when the model does not perform well early on, it does not do well for the rest of the year. I would like to think I've "fixed" this problem, but really only time will tell.
First look on Wednesday, final look on Saturday!
SATURDAY LOOK (Updated to include injury adjustments)
| A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
| In this game: |
Straight Up |
Vs. Spread |
the best
team is: |
by: |
favored
team is: |
lined at: |
by: |
| OAK at NO |
NO |
+2.2 |
OAK |
+6.5 |
-4.3 |
| BAL at IND |
BAL |
-0.3 |
BAL |
+4 |
-4.3 |
| CIN at NYJ |
NYJ |
+10.6 |
NYJ |
-9 |
+1.6 |
| CAR at TB |
TB |
+3.4 |
TB |
-1 |
+2.4 |
| DET at MIN |
MIN |
+9.0 |
DET |
+13 |
-4.0 |
| CHI at ATL |
CHI |
-0.9 |
ATL |
+3 |
+2.1 |
| MIA at HOU |
MIA |
-1.3 |
MIA |
+3 |
-4.3 |
| STL at WAS |
WAS |
+13.9 |
WAS |
-13.5 |
+0.4 |
| JAC at DEN |
DEN |
+5.3 |
DEN |
-3.5 |
+1.8 |
| PHI at SF |
PHI |
-1.6 |
SF |
+4.5 |
+2.9 |
| DAL at ARZ |
ARZ |
+2.6 |
ARZ |
+4.5 |
+7.1 |
| GB at SEA |
SEA |
+1.2 |
SEA |
+1 |
+2.2 |
| NE at SD |
SD |
+4.6 |
SD |
-4.5 |
+0.1 |
| NYG at CLE |
NYG |
-0.7 |
CLE |
+7.5 |
+6.8 |
|
Expected Win% is:
|
53%= |
2.0+ |
| 55%= |
3.0+ |
| 57.5% = |
5.0+ |
| 60% = |
7.0+ |
|
Column C has the team matchup rated straight up, while column F has the matchup rated against the line. Positive values in columns C and F indicate the Home team is favored, negative values favors the Away team.
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WEDNESDAY LOOK (Update on Saturday which includes injury adjustments)
| A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
| In this game: |
Straight Up |
Vs. Spread |
the best
team is: |
by: |
favored
team is: |
lined at: |
by: |
| OAK at NO |
NO |
+3.5 |
OAK |
7.5 |
-4.0 |
| BAL at IND |
IND |
+0.6 |
BAL |
4.5 |
-3.9 |
| CIN at NYJ |
NYJ |
+6.4 |
NYJ |
-6 |
+0.4 |
| CAR at TB |
TB |
+1.5 |
TB |
-1 |
+0.5 |
| DET at MIN |
MIN |
+8.1 |
DET |
13 |
-4.9 |
| CHI at ATL |
CHI |
-0.2 |
ATL |
2.5 |
+2.3 |
| MIA at HOU |
MIA |
-1.7 |
MIA |
3 |
-4.7 |
| STL at WAS |
WAS |
+13.6 |
WAS |
-13.5 |
+0.1 |
| JAC at DEN |
DEN |
+4.6 |
DEN |
-3.5 |
+1.1 |
| PHI at SF |
PHI |
-2.5 |
SF |
4.5 |
+2.0 |
| DAL at ARZ |
ARZ |
+2.6 |
ARZ |
5 |
+7.6 |
| GB at SEA |
SEA |
+1.4 |
GB |
2.5 |
-1.1 |
| NE at SD |
SD |
+4.4 |
NE |
5 |
-0.6 |
| NYG at CLE |
NYG |
-2.0 |
CLE |
7.5 |
+5.5 |
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Line updated at 6p.m. PDT Wednesday
|
|
Expected Win% is:
|
55%= |
3.0+ |
| 57.5% = |
5.0+ |
| 60% = |
7.0+ |
|
Column C has the team matchup rated straight up, while column F has the matchup rated against the line. Positive values in columns C and F indicate the Home team is favored, negative values favors the Away team.
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