3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 6 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Oakland at New Orleans |
-7.5 |
-11% |
+14% |
NO |
1.5 |
NO |
11.5 |
Oakland |
25% |
| Chicago at Atlanta |
+2.5 |
+16% |
-5% |
ATL |
1.5 |
CHI |
2.5 |
Atlanta |
21% |
| St. Louis at Washington |
-13.5 |
-26% |
-5% |
WAS |
19.5 |
STL |
3.5 |
St. Louis |
21% |
| Detroit at Minnesota |
-13.5 |
-20% |
+0% |
MIN |
9.5 |
DET |
7.5 |
Detroit |
20% |
| Baltimore at Indianapolis |
-4.5 |
+13% |
-5% |
BAL |
11.5 |
BAL |
6.5 |
Indianapolis |
18% |
| Jacksonville at Denver |
-3.5 |
-14% |
+4% |
DEN |
9.5 |
DEN |
14.5 |
Jacksonville |
18% |
| N.Y. Giants at Cleveland |
+9 |
+15% |
+0% |
NYG |
16.0 |
NYG |
18.0 |
Cleveland |
15% |
| Philadelphia at San Francisco |
+5 |
+3% |
-7% |
PHI |
2.0 |
SF |
8.0 |
San Francisco |
10% |
| Dallas at Arizona |
+5 |
+20% |
+11% |
ARI |
6.0 |
DAL |
5.0 |
Arizona |
9% |
| New England at San Diego |
-6 |
+3% |
+11% |
SD |
5.0 |
NE |
3.0 |
New England |
8% |
| Green Bay at Seattle |
-2.5 |
-4% |
-7% |
GB |
3.5 |
SEA |
3.5 |
Seattle |
3% |
| Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets |
-6 |
-11% |
-10% |
NYJ |
3.0 |
CIN |
10.0 |
Cincinnati |
1% |
| Carolina at Tampa Bay |
-1.5 |
+4% |
+3% |
CAR |
4.5 |
CAR |
0.5 |
Tampa Bay |
1% |
| Miami at Houston |
-3 |
-2% |
-2% |
MIA |
10.0 |
HOU |
8.0 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
4-1
| 
