3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Third Down Conversions: Up is Down
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 7 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Dallas at St. Louis |
+7 |
+16% |
-21% |
DAL |
16.0 |
DAL |
16.0 |
St. Louis |
37% |
| San Francisco at N.Y. Giants |
-10.5 |
-12% |
+11% |
NYG |
10.5 |
NYG |
6.5 |
San Francisco |
23% |
| Detroit at Houston |
-9 |
-17% |
+1% |
|
0.0 |
HOU |
8.0 |
Detroit |
18% |
| Seattle at Tampa Bay |
-10.5 |
-11% |
+5% |
TB |
4.5 |
SEA |
3.5 |
Seattle |
16% |
| New Orleans at Carolina |
-3 |
+16% |
+2% |
NO |
2.0 |
NO |
5.0 |
Carolina |
14% |
| Minnesota at Chicago |
-3 |
+2% |
+15% |
CHI |
6.0 |
CHI |
5.0 |
Minnesota |
13% |
| Pittsburgh at Cincinnati |
+9.5 |
-2% |
-13% |
PIT |
3.5 |
CIN |
5.5 |
Cincinnati |
11% |
| Tennessee at Kansas City |
+8 |
+0% |
-11% |
TEN |
7.0 |
KC |
5.0 |
Kansas City |
11% |
| Baltimore at Miami |
-3 |
+6% |
-5% |
BAL |
2.0 |
BAL |
15.0 |
Miami |
11% |
| N.Y. Jets at Oakland |
+3 |
-3% |
-14% |
NYJ |
8.0 |
NYJ |
6.0 |
Oakland |
11% |
| Cleveland at Washington |
-7 |
+3% |
-4% |
WAS |
4.0 |
WAS |
3.0 |
Washington |
7% |
| San Diego at Buffalo |
+0 |
+10% |
+13% |
SD |
3.0 |
BUF |
7.0 |
San Diego |
3% |
| Indianapolis at Green Bay |
+1.5 |
+0% |
+1% |
IND |
3.5 |
IND |
1.5 |
Indianapolis |
1% |
| Denver at New England |
-3 |
+3% |
+3% |
DEN |
3.0 |
DEN |
3.0 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
8-3
| 
