3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 8 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Oakland at Baltimore |
-6.5 |
-13% |
+7% |
BAL |
8.5 |
BAL |
14.5 |
Oakland |
20% |
| St. Louis at New England |
-7 |
-17% |
+3% |
NE |
14.0 |
NE |
9.0 |
St. Louis |
20% |
| Cincinnati at Houston |
-10 |
-15% |
+3% |
CIN |
3.0 |
HOU |
6.0 |
Cincinnati |
18% |
| Buffalo at Miami |
+1.5 |
+9% |
-6% |
BUF |
3.5 |
BUF |
10.5 |
Miami |
15% |
| Atlanta at Philadelphia |
-9 |
-7% |
+8% |
PHI |
2.0 |
ATL |
5.0 |
Atlanta |
15% |
| Washington at Detroit |
+7.5 |
-2% |
-16% |
WAS |
7.5 |
DET |
3.5 |
Detroit |
14% |
| Cleveland at Jacksonville |
-6.5 |
+2% |
-12% |
CLE |
3.5 |
JAX |
6.5 |
Jacksonville |
14% |
| Kansas City at N.Y. Jets |
-13 |
-11% |
+0% |
NYJ |
6.0 |
NYJ |
8.0 |
Kansas City |
11% |
| Arizona at Carolina |
-4.5 |
+10% |
+2% |
CAR |
0.5 |
ARI |
3.5 |
Carolina |
8% |
| N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh |
-2.5 |
+9% |
+3% |
NYG |
5.5 |
NYG |
7.5 |
Pittsburgh |
6% |
| Indianapolis at Tennessee |
-4 |
-3% |
+3% |
TEN |
3.0 |
IND |
4.0 |
Indianapolis |
6% |
| Seattle at San Francisco |
-4.5 |
-16% |
-11% |
SEA |
1.5 |
SF |
4.5 |
Seattle |
5% |
| Tampa Bay at Dallas |
-3.5 |
+9% |
+13% |
TB |
6.5 |
DAL |
6.5 |
Tampa Bay |
4% |
| San Diego at New Orleans |
+3 |
+10% |
+13% |
NO |
4.0 |
NO |
10.0 |
San Diego |
3% |
Season to Date Record:
9-5
| 
