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Trends
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The following table shows how home teams with certain offensive/defensive rankings have done in matchups in the fifth week of the season and beyond using this rating scheme for both rushing yards and passing yards:
- Top 10 Ranking worth one point
- Rank of 11 to 20 worth two points
- Rank of 21+ worth 3 points
| Factors |
Home Rank
Points |
Spread W-L |
Spread Win% |
| Rushing Defense + Passing Defense |
2 |
199-151 |
57% |
| Rushing Offense + Passing Defense |
2 |
199-132 |
60% |
| Passing Offense + Passing Defense |
6 |
46-76* |
38% |
* as favorites
Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table there are three combinations that have been some distance from the 50% expected value. A few teams might be worth a closer look here in 2008:
- Baltimore - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #7 in rushing offense, #1 in rushing defense and #4 in passing defense
- Philadelphia - Rank #9 in rushing defense and #10 in passing defense
- Pittsburgh - Rank #2 in rushing defense and #1 in passing defense
- Tennessee - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #4 in rushing offense, #8 in rushing defense and #5 in passing defense
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