3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 9 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Detroit at Chicago |
-13 |
-18% |
+13% |
CHI |
8.0 |
|
0.0 |
Detroit |
31% |
| Arizona at St. Louis |
+3 |
+7% |
-18% |
ARI |
12.0 |
ARI |
16.0 |
St. Louis |
25% |
| Tampa Bay at Kansas City |
+8 |
+10% |
-13% |
TB |
7.0 |
TB |
7.0 |
Kansas City |
23% |
| Philadelphia at Seattle |
+7 |
+5% |
-15% |
PHI |
2.0 |
SEA |
11.0 |
Seattle |
20% |
| Baltimore at Cleveland |
-1.5 |
+13% |
-4% |
BAL |
4.5 |
BAL |
17.5 |
Cleveland |
17% |
| Atlanta at Oakland |
+3 |
-5% |
-18% |
ATL |
6.0 |
ATL |
6.0 |
Oakland |
13% |
| Jacksonville at Cincinnati |
+7.5 |
-5% |
-16% |
JAX |
3.5 |
CIN |
2.5 |
Cincinnati |
11% |
| New England at Indianapolis |
-5.5 |
+6% |
-3% |
NE |
0.5 |
IND |
4.5 |
Indianapolis |
9% |
| Miami at Denver |
-3 |
-7% |
+1% |
MIA |
6.0 |
DEN |
14.0 |
Miami |
8% |
| N.Y. Jets at Buffalo |
-5.5 |
+3% |
+10% |
BUF |
3.5 |
NYJ |
0.5 |
N.Y. Jets |
7% |
| Houston at Minnesota |
-4.5 |
+6% |
+2% |
HOU |
1.5 |
HOU |
6.5 |
Minnesota |
4% |
| Green Bay at Tennessee |
-5.5 |
+3% |
+4% |
TEN |
11.5 |
TEN |
8.5 |
Green Bay |
1% |
| Dallas at N.Y. Giants |
-8 |
+10% |
+9% |
NYG |
7.0 |
DAL |
11.0 |
N.Y. Giants |
1% |
| Pittsburgh at Washington |
-1.5 |
+1% |
+1% |
PIT |
0.5 |
PIT |
5.5 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
9-11
| 
