Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| San Francisco at Arizona |
ARI 33-14 |
-19 |
-9.5 |
Arizona |
9.5 |
| St. Louis at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 29-14 |
-15 |
-8 |
N.Y. Jets |
7 |
| Baltimore at Houston |
BAL 24-19 |
+5 |
-1.5 |
Baltimore |
6.5 |
| Carolina at Oakland |
CAR 25-10 |
+15 |
+9 |
Carolina |
6 |
| New Orleans at Atlanta |
ATL 25-20 |
-5 |
+0 |
Atlanta |
5 |
| Buffalo at New England |
BUF 21-20 |
+1 |
-4 |
Buffalo |
5 |
| Jacksonville at Detroit |
JAX 27-16 |
+11 |
+6.5 |
Jacksonville |
4.5 |
| Green Bay at Minnesota |
MIN 23-16 |
-7 |
-2.5 |
Minnesota |
4.5 |
| Denver at Cleveland |
CLE 26-19 |
-7 |
-3 |
Cleveland |
4 |
| N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia |
NYG 21-20 |
+1 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
4 |
| Indianapolis at Pittsburgh |
PIT 20-15 |
-5 |
-3 |
Pittsburgh |
2 |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
SD 31-14 |
-17 |
-15 |
San Diego |
2 |
| Seattle at Miami |
MIA 26-18 |
-8 |
-9 |
Seattle |
1 |
| Tennessee at Chicago |
TEN 18-15 |
+3 |
+3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
1 - 1 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
4 - 5 |
12 - 15 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 5 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
11 - 11 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 1 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
1 - 2 |
3 - 4 |
14 - 11 |
|
| Favorites |
1 - 1 |
6 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
8 - 10 |
23 - 26 |
| Underdogs |
5 - 1 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
2 - 2 |
4 - 5 |
17 - 12 |
| Home Teams |
2 - 1 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
5 - 6 |
15 - 16 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 1 |
7 - 8 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 3 |
7 - 9 |
25 - 22 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
6 - 2 |
10 - 10 |
4 - 5 |
8 - 6 |
12 - 15 |
40 - 38 |
| WIN % |
75 % |
50 % |
44 % |
57 % |
44 % |
51 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
1 - 6 |
15 - 11 |
7 - 9 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
4 - 2 |
12 - 9 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| St. Louis at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 33-8 |
-25 |
-8 |
N.Y. Jets |
17 |
| Seattle at Miami |
MIA 31-12 |
-19 |
-9 |
Miami |
10 |
| Indianapolis at Pittsburgh |
PIT 25-12 |
-13 |
-3 |
Pittsburgh |
10 |
| Carolina at Oakland |
CAR 26-11 |
+15 |
+9 |
Carolina |
6 |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
SD 34-13 |
-21 |
-15 |
San Diego |
6 |
| Jacksonville at Detroit |
JAX 28-17 |
+11 |
+6.5 |
Jacksonville |
4.5 |
| Baltimore at Houston |
BAL 22-19 |
+3 |
-1.5 |
Baltimore |
4.5 |
| Denver at Cleveland |
DEN 24-23 |
+1 |
-3 |
Denver |
4 |
| N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia |
PHI 20-19 |
-1 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
2 |
| Green Bay at Minnesota |
MIN 18-17 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
Green Bay |
1.5 |
| San Francisco at Arizona |
ARI 28-17 |
-11 |
-9.5 |
Arizona |
1.5 |
| New Orleans at Atlanta |
ATL 24-23 |
-1 |
+0 |
Atlanta |
1 |
| Buffalo at New England |
NE 24-21 |
-3 |
-4 |
Buffalo |
1 |
| Tennessee at Chicago |
TEN 20-17 |
+3 |
+3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 0 |
1 - 6 |
1 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
7 - 8 |
11 - 18 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
7 - 2 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
7 - 5 |
8 - 7 |
| AwayDogs |
1 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
11 - 11 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
1 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
14 - 13 |
19 - 25 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 6 |
18 - 13 |
| Home Teams |
0 - 0 |
2 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
9 - 9 |
18 - 20 |
| Away Teams |
1 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
11 - 10 |
19 - 18 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
1 - 2 |
5 - 8 |
5 - 6 |
6 - 3 |
20 - 19 |
37 - 38 |
| WIN % |
33 % |
38 % |
45 % |
67 % |
51 % |
49 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 6 |
11 - 11 |
6 - 8 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 0 |
5 - 5 |
12 - 8 |
| 
