3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 10 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Carolina at Oakland |
+9 |
+3% |
-20% |
CAR |
6.0 |
CAR |
6.0 |
Oakland |
23% |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
-15 |
-13% |
+8% |
SD |
2.0 |
SD |
7.0 |
Kansas City |
21% |
| St. Louis at N.Y. Jets |
-8 |
-15% |
+2% |
NYJ |
7.0 |
NYJ |
10.0 |
St. Louis |
17% |
| San Francisco at Arizona |
-9.5 |
-9% |
+6% |
ARI |
9.5 |
SF |
5.5 |
San Francisco |
15% |
| New Orleans at Atlanta |
+0 |
+12% |
+1% |
ATL |
5.0 |
NO |
2.0 |
Atlanta |
11% |
| Denver at Cleveland |
-3 |
+3% |
-6% |
CLE |
4.0 |
DEN |
12.0 |
Cleveland |
9% |
| Jacksonville at Detroit |
+6.5 |
-6% |
-14% |
JAX |
4.5 |
JAX |
3.5 |
Detroit |
8% |
| Indianapolis at Pittsburgh |
-3 |
-4% |
+4% |
PIT |
2.0 |
PIT |
4.0 |
Indianapolis |
8% |
| Tennessee at Chicago |
+3 |
+4% |
+10% |
|
0.0 |
CHI |
6.0 |
Tennessee |
6% |
| Baltimore at Houston |
-1.5 |
+13% |
+7% |
BAL |
6.5 |
HOU |
2.5 |
Houston |
6% |
| Seattle at Miami |
-9 |
-13% |
-8% |
SEA |
1.0 |
SEA |
14.0 |
Seattle |
5% |
| Buffalo at New England |
-4 |
+10% |
+6% |
BUF |
5.0 |
BUF |
11.0 |
New England |
4% |
| N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia |
-3 |
+10% |
+6% |
NYG |
4.0 |
NYG |
2.0 |
Philadelphia |
4% |
| Green Bay at Minnesota |
-2.5 |
+2% |
+1% |
MIN |
4.5 |
MIN |
6.5 |
Minnesota |
1% |
Season to Date Record:
12-13
| 
