3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 11 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| New Orleans at Kansas City |
+5 |
+11% |
-14% |
|
0.0 |
NO |
13.0 |
Kansas City |
25% |
| Detroit at Carolina |
-14 |
-15% |
+5% |
CAR |
11.0 |
CAR |
10.0 |
Detroit |
20% |
| Philadelphia at Cincinnati |
+9 |
+2% |
-13% |
PHI |
10.0 |
CIN |
5.0 |
Cincinnati |
15% |
| Arizona at Seattle |
+3 |
+3% |
-12% |
ARI |
6.0 |
SEA |
1.0 |
Seattle |
15% |
| Oakland at Miami |
-10.5 |
-20% |
-7% |
MIA |
4.5 |
MIA |
0.5 |
Oakland |
13% |
| St. Louis at San Francisco |
-6 |
-15% |
-5% |
SF |
3.0 |
SF |
11.0 |
St. Louis |
10% |
| Cleveland at Buffalo |
-4.5 |
-5% |
+5% |
BUF |
4.5 |
BUF |
13.5 |
Cleveland |
10% |
| Dallas at Washington |
+1.5 |
+7% |
-2% |
WAS |
8.5 |
DAL |
3.5 |
Washington |
9% |
| Chicago at Green Bay |
-5 |
+7% |
-1% |
CHI |
10.0 |
CHI |
10.0 |
Green Bay |
8% |
| Houston at Indianapolis |
-8.5 |
+4% |
-4% |
IND |
4.5 |
HOU |
12.5 |
Indianapolis |
8% |
| Tennessee at Jacksonville |
+3 |
+5% |
-3% |
|
0.0 |
JAX |
9.0 |
Jacksonville |
8% |
| N.Y. Jets at New England |
-3 |
+3% |
+9% |
NYJ |
4.0 |
NYJ |
3.0 |
N.Y. Jets |
6% |
| Minnesota at Tampa Bay |
-3.5 |
+5% |
+10% |
MIN |
0.5 |
MIN |
4.5 |
Minnesota |
5% |
| San Diego at Pittsburgh |
-4 |
+8% |
+4% |
PIT |
3.0 |
PIT |
4.0 |
Pittsburgh |
4% |
| Denver at Atlanta |
-6 |
+3% |
+0% |
ATL |
11.0 |
DEN |
2.0 |
Atlanta |
3% |
| Baltimore at N.Y. Giants |
-6.5 |
+13% |
+11% |
NYG |
0.5 |
BAL |
4.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
2% |
Season to Date Record:
14-15
| 
