Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Cincinnati at Pittsburgh |
PIT 26-7 |
-19 |
-10.5 |
Pittsburgh |
8.5 |
| Houston at Cleveland |
CLE 30-19 |
-11 |
-3 |
Cleveland |
8 |
| Tampa Bay at Detroit |
TB 27-12 |
+15 |
+8.5 |
Tampa Bay |
6.5 |
| Chicago at St. Louis |
CHI 25-12 |
+13 |
+7.5 |
Chicago |
5.5 |
| Buffalo at Kansas City |
BUF 24-15 |
+9 |
+4 |
Buffalo |
5 |
| San Francisco at Dallas |
DAL 26-19 |
-7 |
-11 |
San Francisco |
4 |
| Minnesota at Jacksonville |
JAX 23-18 |
-5 |
-2.5 |
Jacksonville |
2.5 |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
ATL 20-17 |
-3 |
-1 |
Atlanta |
2 |
| N.Y. Giants at Arizona |
NYG 24-23 |
+1 |
+3 |
Arizona |
2 |
| Indianapolis at San Diego |
SD 23-22 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
Indianapolis |
1.5 |
| New England at Miami |
MIA 23-20 |
-3 |
-2 |
Miami |
1 |
| N.Y. Jets at Tennessee |
TEN 22-15 |
-7 |
-6 |
Tennessee |
1 |
| Philadelphia at Baltimore |
BAL 18-17 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
Philadelphia |
.5 |
| Oakland at Denver |
DEN 26-17 |
-9 |
-9.5 |
Oakland |
.5 |
| Washington at Seattle |
WAS 21-18 |
+3 |
+3.5 |
Seattle |
.5 |
| Green Bay at New Orleans |
NO 24-21 |
-3 |
-2.5 |
New Orleans |
.5 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
2 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
1 - 9 |
4 - 3 |
4 - 8 |
15 - 26 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 5 |
2 - 0 |
5 - 1 |
4 - 6 |
14 - 12 |
| AwayDogs |
5 - 2 |
4 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
3 - 5 |
18 - 14 |
|
| Favorites |
2 - 1 |
7 - 10 |
3 - 9 |
9 - 4 |
8 - 14 |
29 - 38 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 2 |
4 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
4 - 7 |
22 - 16 |
| Home Teams |
3 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
2 - 9 |
5 - 3 |
5 - 10 |
19 - 28 |
| Away Teams |
5 - 2 |
7 - 8 |
6 - 2 |
7 - 3 |
7 - 11 |
32 - 26 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
8 - 3 |
11 - 13 |
8 - 11 |
12 - 6 |
12 - 21 |
51 - 54 |
| WIN % |
73 % |
46 % |
42 % |
67 % |
36 % |
49 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
1 - 9 |
20 - 15 |
8 - 14 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
5 - 3 |
16 - 12 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Tampa Bay at Detroit |
TB 31-8 |
+23 |
+8.5 |
Tampa Bay |
14.5 |
| Cincinnati at Pittsburgh |
PIT 26-6 |
-20 |
-10.5 |
Pittsburgh |
9.5 |
| Washington at Seattle |
WAS 26-13 |
+13 |
+3.5 |
Washington |
9.5 |
| Chicago at St. Louis |
CHI 28-13 |
+15 |
+7.5 |
Chicago |
7.5 |
| Buffalo at Kansas City |
BUF 28-17 |
+11 |
+4 |
Buffalo |
7 |
| Oakland at Denver |
DEN 29-14 |
-15 |
-9.5 |
Denver |
5.5 |
| New England at Miami |
MIA 27-20 |
-7 |
-2 |
Miami |
5 |
| Houston at Cleveland |
HOU 25-24 |
+1 |
-3 |
Houston |
4 |
| San Francisco at Dallas |
DAL 24-17 |
-7 |
-11 |
San Francisco |
4 |
| N.Y. Jets at Tennessee |
TEN 24-15 |
-9 |
-6 |
Tennessee |
3 |
| Philadelphia at Baltimore |
PHI 18-17 |
+1 |
-1.5 |
Philadelphia |
2.5 |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
CAR 21-20 |
+1 |
-1 |
Carolina |
2 |
| N.Y. Giants at Arizona |
NYG 24-19 |
+5 |
+3 |
N.Y. Giants |
2 |
| Indianapolis at San Diego |
SD 25-24 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
Indianapolis |
1.5 |
| Green Bay at New Orleans |
NO 22-21 |
-1 |
-2.5 |
Green Bay |
1.5 |
| Minnesota at Jacksonville |
JAX 22-19 |
-3 |
-2.5 |
Jacksonville |
.5 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 2 |
1 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
9 - 12 |
15 - 27 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
8 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
2 - 0 |
9 - 6 |
13 - 8 |
| AwayDogs |
2 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
17 - 13 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 2 |
2 - 6 |
4 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
18 - 18 |
28 - 35 |
| Underdogs |
3 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 7 |
25 - 16 |
| Home Teams |
1 - 2 |
2 - 6 |
6 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
11 - 14 |
23 - 30 |
| Away Teams |
2 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
13 - 11 |
30 - 21 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
3 - 5 |
8 - 9 |
11 - 8 |
7 - 4 |
24 - 25 |
53 - 51 |
| WIN % |
38 % |
47 % |
58 % |
64 % |
49 % |
51 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 9 |
17 - 15 |
9 - 11 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 0 |
6 - 6 |
18 - 10 |
| 
