3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 12 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Tampa Bay at Detroit |
+8.5 |
+9% |
-12% |
TB |
6.5 |
DET |
0.5 |
Detroit |
21% |
| Oakland at Denver |
-9.5 |
-20% |
+1% |
OAK |
0.5 |
DEN |
10.5 |
Oakland |
21% |
| Buffalo at Kansas City |
+4 |
+5% |
-14% |
BUF |
5.0 |
BUF |
18.0 |
Kansas City |
19% |
| Chicago at St. Louis |
+7.5 |
+3% |
-15% |
CHI |
5.5 |
STL |
3.5 |
St. Louis |
18% |
| Cincinnati at Pittsburgh |
-10.5 |
-11% |
+4% |
PIT |
8.5 |
PIT |
8.5 |
Cincinnati |
15% |
| San Francisco at Dallas |
-11 |
-3% |
+8% |
SF |
4.0 |
SF |
7.0 |
San Francisco |
11% |
| Philadelphia at Baltimore |
-1.5 |
+1% |
+11% |
PHI |
0.5 |
BAL |
2.5 |
Philadelphia |
10% |
| Washington at Seattle |
+3.5 |
-3% |
-13% |
SEA |
0.5 |
SEA |
7.5 |
Seattle |
10% |
| Indianapolis at San Diego |
-2.5 |
-2% |
+8% |
IND |
1.5 |
SD |
8.5 |
Indianapolis |
10% |
| New England at Miami |
-2 |
+5% |
-4% |
MIA |
1.0 |
NE |
3.0 |
Miami |
9% |
| Green Bay at New Orleans |
-2.5 |
+2% |
+11% |
NO |
0.5 |
NO |
12.5 |
Green Bay |
9% |
| Houston at Cleveland |
-3 |
+2% |
-5% |
CLE |
8.0 |
HOU |
14.0 |
Cleveland |
7% |
| Minnesota at Jacksonville |
-2.5 |
+4% |
-3% |
JAX |
2.5 |
MIN |
0.5 |
Jacksonville |
7% |
| N.Y. Giants at Arizona |
+3 |
+11% |
+5% |
ARI |
2.0 |
ARI |
4.0 |
Arizona |
6% |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
-1 |
+3% |
+2% |
ATL |
2.0 |
ATL |
2.0 |
Atlanta |
1% |
| N.Y. Jets at Tennessee |
-6 |
+5% |
+5% |
TEN |
1.0 |
NYJ |
6.0 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
15-19
| 
