Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati |
BAL 25-8 |
+17 |
+7 |
Baltimore |
10 |
| Tennessee at Detroit |
TEN 27-8 |
+19 |
+11 |
Tennessee |
8 |
| Jacksonville at Houston |
JAX 26-21 |
+5 |
-3 |
Jacksonville |
8 |
| Denver at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 32-17 |
-15 |
-7.5 |
N.Y. Jets |
7.5 |
| Atlanta at San Diego |
ATL 24-23 |
+1 |
-5.5 |
Atlanta |
6.5 |
| San Francisco at Buffalo |
BUF 27-14 |
-13 |
-7 |
Buffalo |
6 |
| Carolina at Green Bay |
CAR 21-18 |
+3 |
-3 |
Carolina |
6 |
| N.Y. Giants at Washington |
NYG 26-17 |
+9 |
+3.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
5.5 |
| Seattle at Dallas |
DAL 26-17 |
-9 |
-13 |
Seattle |
4 |
| Arizona at Philadelphia |
PHI 22-21 |
-1 |
-3 |
Arizona |
2 |
| Pittsburgh at New England |
PIT 20-19 |
+1 |
-1 |
Pittsburgh |
2 |
| Kansas City at Oakland |
OAK 19-18 |
-1 |
-3 |
Kansas City |
2 |
| Chicago at Minnesota |
MIN 18-17 |
-1 |
-3 |
Chicago |
2 |
| Indianapolis at Cleveland |
IND 21-18 |
+3 |
+4.5 |
Cleveland |
1.5 |
| Miami at St. Louis |
MIA 26-17 |
+9 |
+8 |
Miami |
1 |
| New Orleans at Tampa Bay |
TB 23-18 |
-5 |
-4 |
Tampa Bay |
1 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 3 |
5 - 6 |
1 - 9 |
4 - 3 |
5 - 9 |
18 - 30 |
| HomeDogs |
2 - 0 |
0 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
5 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 5 |
4 - 0 |
6 - 1 |
4 - 6 |
17 - 12 |
| AwayDogs |
7 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
3 - 5 |
20 - 16 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 3 |
8 - 11 |
5 - 9 |
10 - 4 |
9 - 15 |
35 - 42 |
| Underdogs |
9 - 3 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
4 - 7 |
25 - 19 |
| Home Teams |
5 - 3 |
5 - 7 |
2 - 9 |
5 - 3 |
6 - 11 |
23 - 33 |
| Away Teams |
7 - 3 |
7 - 8 |
8 - 3 |
8 - 3 |
7 - 11 |
37 - 28 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
12 - 6 |
12 - 15 |
10 - 12 |
13 - 6 |
13 - 22 |
60 - 61 |
| WIN % |
67 % |
44 % |
45 % |
68 % |
37 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
2 - 9 |
22 - 16 |
11 - 17 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
18 - 14 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Miami at St. Louis |
MIA 34-11 |
+23 |
+8 |
Miami |
15 |
| Tennessee at Detroit |
TEN 32-9 |
+23 |
+11 |
Tennessee |
12 |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati |
BAL 25-8 |
+17 |
+7 |
Baltimore |
10 |
| Kansas City at Oakland |
OAK 25-16 |
-9 |
-3 |
Oakland |
6 |
| San Francisco at Buffalo |
BUF 23-20 |
-3 |
-7 |
San Francisco |
4 |
| N.Y. Giants at Washington |
NYG 24-17 |
+7 |
+3.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
3.5 |
| New Orleans at Tampa Bay |
TB 25-18 |
-7 |
-4 |
Tampa Bay |
3 |
| Seattle at Dallas |
DAL 28-13 |
-15 |
-13 |
Dallas |
2 |
| Carolina at Green Bay |
GB 19-18 |
-1 |
-3 |
Carolina |
2 |
| Pittsburgh at New England |
PIT 20-19 |
+1 |
-1 |
Pittsburgh |
2 |
| Chicago at Minnesota |
MIN 19-18 |
-1 |
-3 |
Chicago |
2 |
| Jacksonville at Houston |
HOU 26-21 |
-5 |
-3 |
Houston |
2 |
| Indianapolis at Cleveland |
IND 24-21 |
+3 |
+4.5 |
Cleveland |
1.5 |
| Denver at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 30-21 |
-9 |
-7.5 |
N.Y. Jets |
1.5 |
| Atlanta at San Diego |
SD 28-23 |
-5 |
-5.5 |
Atlanta |
.5 |
| Arizona at Philadelphia |
PHI 22-19 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 3 |
1 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
10 - 12 |
16 - 31 |
| HomeDogs |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
8 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
10 - 7 |
17 - 9 |
| AwayDogs |
3 - 4 |
5 - 5 |
5 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
19 - 17 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 3 |
3 - 7 |
4 - 8 |
6 - 3 |
20 - 19 |
33 - 40 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 4 |
6 - 5 |
8 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 7 |
27 - 20 |
| Home Teams |
1 - 3 |
2 - 7 |
6 - 7 |
3 - 3 |
12 - 14 |
24 - 34 |
| Away Teams |
3 - 4 |
7 - 5 |
6 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
14 - 12 |
36 - 26 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
4 - 7 |
9 - 12 |
12 - 11 |
9 - 4 |
26 - 26 |
60 - 60 |
| WIN % |
36 % |
43 % |
52 % |
69 % |
50 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
3 - 9 |
19 - 17 |
11 - 14 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
6 - 6 |
20 - 13 |
| 
