3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 13 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Seattle at Dallas |
-13 |
-14% |
+9% |
SEA |
4.0 |
|
0.0 |
Seattle |
23% |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati |
+7 |
+11% |
-11% |
BAL |
10.0 |
BAL |
2.0 |
Cincinnati |
22% |
| Tennessee at Detroit |
+11 |
+2% |
-13% |
TEN |
8.0 |
DET |
6.0 |
Detroit |
15% |
| Miami at St. Louis |
+8 |
-3% |
-15% |
MIA |
1.0 |
STL |
13.0 |
St. Louis |
12% |
| San Francisco at Buffalo |
-7 |
-6% |
+5% |
BUF |
6.0 |
SF |
1.0 |
San Francisco |
11% |
| N.Y. Giants at Washington |
+3.5 |
+9% |
+0% |
NYG |
5.5 |
NYG |
0.5 |
Washington |
9% |
| Denver at N.Y. Jets |
-7.5 |
+1% |
+7% |
NYJ |
7.5 |
DEN |
3.5 |
Denver |
6% |
| Arizona at Philadelphia |
-3 |
+6% |
+1% |
ARI |
2.0 |
PHI |
2.0 |
Philadelphia |
5% |
| Indianapolis at Cleveland |
+4.5 |
+0% |
-4% |
CLE |
1.5 |
CLE |
1.5 |
Cleveland |
4% |
| Kansas City at Oakland |
-3 |
-13% |
-17% |
KC |
2.0 |
KC |
5.0 |
Oakland |
4% |
| Carolina at Green Bay |
-3 |
+1% |
+4% |
CAR |
6.0 |
CAR |
6.0 |
Carolina |
3% |
| Atlanta at San Diego |
-5.5 |
+2% |
+5% |
ATL |
6.5 |
ATL |
3.5 |
Atlanta |
3% |
| New Orleans at Tampa Bay |
-4 |
+8% |
+10% |
TB |
1.0 |
NO |
5.0 |
New Orleans |
2% |
| Jacksonville at Houston |
-3 |
-2% |
+0% |
JAX |
8.0 |
JAX |
2.0 |
Jacksonville |
2% |
| Pittsburgh at New England |
-1 |
+5% |
+4% |
PIT |
2.0 |
PIT |
5.0 |
New England |
1% |
| Chicago at Minnesota |
-3 |
+4% |
+4% |
CHI |
2.0 |
MIN |
3.0 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
17-25
| 
