Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Dallas at Pittsburgh |
PIT 24-13 |
-11 |
-3 |
Pittsburgh |
8 |
| Washington at Baltimore |
BAL 24-11 |
-13 |
-5.5 |
Baltimore |
7.5 |
| Cincinnati at Indianapolis |
IND 29-8 |
-21 |
-13.5 |
Indianapolis |
7.5 |
| St. Louis at Arizona |
ARI 34-13 |
-21 |
-13.5 |
Arizona |
7.5 |
| Minnesota at Detroit |
MIN 28-11 |
+17 |
+10 |
Minnesota |
7 |
| Atlanta at New Orleans |
ATL 25-22 |
+3 |
-3 |
Atlanta |
6 |
| Kansas City at Denver |
DEN 24-21 |
-3 |
-9 |
Kansas City |
6 |
| Miami at Buffalo |
BUF 24-17 |
-7 |
-1.5 |
Buffalo |
5.5 |
| Oakland at San Diego |
SD 27-14 |
-13 |
-10 |
San Diego |
3 |
| Cleveland at Tennessee |
TEN 22-11 |
-11 |
-14 |
Cleveland |
3 |
| N.Y. Jets at San Francisco |
NYJ 26-20 |
+6 |
+4 |
N.Y. Jets |
2 |
| Tampa Bay at Carolina |
CAR 20-15 |
-5 |
-3 |
Carolina |
2 |
| Jacksonville at Chicago |
CHI 21-16 |
-5 |
-6.5 |
Jacksonville |
1.5 |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 25-16 |
-9 |
-7.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
1.5 |
| Houston at Green Bay |
GB 26-21 |
-5 |
-6 |
Houston |
1 |
| New England at Seattle |
NE 24-19 |
+5 |
+4.5 |
New England |
.5 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 4 |
5 - 6 |
1 - 9 |
4 - 5 |
5 - 9 |
18 - 33 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 0 |
0 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 1 |
3 - 5 |
5 - 0 |
6 - 1 |
6 - 6 |
20 - 13 |
| AwayDogs |
7 - 3 |
6 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
3 - 6 |
24 - 20 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 5 |
8 - 11 |
6 - 9 |
10 - 6 |
11 - 15 |
38 - 46 |
| Underdogs |
10 - 3 |
6 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
4 - 8 |
30 - 23 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 4 |
5 - 7 |
2 - 9 |
5 - 5 |
6 - 11 |
24 - 36 |
| Away Teams |
7 - 4 |
9 - 10 |
9 - 4 |
10 - 3 |
9 - 12 |
44 - 33 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
13 - 8 |
14 - 17 |
11 - 13 |
15 - 8 |
15 - 23 |
68 - 69 |
| WIN % |
62 % |
45 % |
46 % |
65 % |
39 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
3 - 9 |
23 - 19 |
12 - 18 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 3 |
7 - 3 |
22 - 17 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| St. Louis at Arizona |
ARI 37-8 |
-29 |
-13.5 |
Arizona |
15.5 |
| Kansas City at Denver |
DEN 35-18 |
-17 |
-9 |
Denver |
8 |
| Minnesota at Detroit |
MIN 27-10 |
+17 |
+10 |
Minnesota |
7 |
| Cleveland at Tennessee |
TEN 30-9 |
-21 |
-14 |
Tennessee |
7 |
| Miami at Buffalo |
MIA 26-21 |
+5 |
-1.5 |
Miami |
6.5 |
| New England at Seattle |
NE 28-17 |
+11 |
+4.5 |
New England |
6.5 |
| Dallas at Pittsburgh |
PIT 22-13 |
-9 |
-3 |
Pittsburgh |
6 |
| Washington at Baltimore |
BAL 22-13 |
-9 |
-5.5 |
Baltimore |
3.5 |
| Jacksonville at Chicago |
CHI 22-19 |
-3 |
-6.5 |
Jacksonville |
3.5 |
| Cincinnati at Indianapolis |
IND 28-11 |
-17 |
-13.5 |
Indianapolis |
3.5 |
| Tampa Bay at Carolina |
CAR 18-17 |
-1 |
-3 |
Tampa Bay |
2 |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 24-15 |
-9 |
-7.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
1.5 |
| Oakland at San Diego |
SD 27-16 |
-11 |
-10 |
San Diego |
1 |
| Houston at Green Bay |
GB 26-19 |
-7 |
-6 |
Green Bay |
1 |
| N.Y. Jets at San Francisco |
NYJ 23-20 |
+3 |
+4 |
San Francisco |
1 |
| Atlanta at New Orleans |
NO 26-23 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
0 - 4 |
3 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
10 - 12 |
18 - 34 |
| HomeDogs |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
9 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
12 - 8 |
20 - 10 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 4 |
7 - 6 |
6 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
23 - 18 |
|
| Favorites |
0 - 4 |
6 - 8 |
4 - 8 |
6 - 4 |
22 - 20 |
38 - 44 |
| Underdogs |
6 - 4 |
8 - 6 |
9 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 7 |
32 - 21 |
| Home Teams |
2 - 4 |
4 - 8 |
6 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
12 - 14 |
27 - 37 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 4 |
10 - 6 |
7 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
16 - 13 |
43 - 28 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
6 - 8 |
14 - 14 |
13 - 11 |
9 - 5 |
28 - 27 |
70 - 65 |
| WIN % |
43 % |
50 % |
54 % |
64 % |
51 % |
52 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
5 - 9 |
20 - 19 |
13 - 16 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
8 - 6 |
23 - 14 |
| 
