3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 14 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Oakland at San Diego |
-10 |
-19% |
+2% |
SD |
3.0 |
SD |
10.0 |
Oakland |
21% |
| Minnesota at Detroit |
+10 |
+4% |
-15% |
MIN |
7.0 |
|
0.0 |
Detroit |
19% |
| St. Louis at Arizona |
-13.5 |
-12% |
+2% |
ARI |
7.5 |
STL |
1.5 |
St. Louis |
14% |
| Washington at Baltimore |
-5.5 |
+0% |
+13% |
BAL |
7.5 |
BAL |
6.5 |
Washington |
13% |
| Cincinnati at Indianapolis |
-13.5 |
-13% |
+0% |
IND |
7.5 |
IND |
0.5 |
Cincinnati |
13% |
| New England at Seattle |
+4.5 |
-1% |
-14% |
NE |
0.5 |
SEA |
1.5 |
Seattle |
13% |
| Kansas City at Denver |
-9 |
-10% |
+1% |
KC |
6.0 |
DEN |
4.0 |
Kansas City |
11% |
| N.Y. Jets at San Francisco |
+4 |
+6% |
-4% |
NYJ |
2.0 |
SF |
8.0 |
San Francisco |
10% |
| Cleveland at Tennessee |
-14 |
-2% |
+6% |
CLE |
3.0 |
CLE |
6.0 |
Cleveland |
8% |
| Miami at Buffalo |
-1.5 |
-5% |
+3% |
BUF |
5.5 |
BUF |
17.5 |
Miami |
8% |
| Tampa Bay at Carolina |
-3 |
+8% |
+1% |
CAR |
2.0 |
CAR |
2.0 |
Carolina |
7% |
| Houston at Green Bay |
-6 |
-2% |
+4% |
HOU |
1.0 |
HOU |
9.0 |
Houston |
6% |
| Jacksonville at Chicago |
-6.5 |
-1% |
+4% |
JAX |
1.5 |
JAX |
8.5 |
Jacksonville |
5% |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
-7.5 |
+4% |
+9% |
NYG |
1.5 |
PHI |
4.5 |
Philadelphia |
5% |
| Atlanta at New Orleans |
-3 |
+5% |
+9% |
ATL |
6.0 |
ATL |
2.0 |
Atlanta |
4% |
| Dallas at Pittsburgh |
-3 |
+10% |
+8% |
PIT |
8.0 |
PIT |
2.0 |
Pittsburgh |
2% |
Season to Date Record:
20-28
| 
