Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Detroit at Indianapolis |
IND 34-7 |
-27 |
-17 |
Indianapolis |
10 |
| N.Y. Giants at Dallas |
NYG 25-18 |
+7 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
10 |
| Tennessee at Houston |
TEN 25-16 |
+9 |
+3 |
Tennessee |
6 |
| Denver at Carolina |
CAR 29-16 |
-13 |
-7.5 |
Carolina |
5.5 |
| Green Bay at Jacksonville |
JAX 22-19 |
-3 |
+2 |
Jacksonville |
5 |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta |
ATL 24-17 |
-7 |
-3 |
Atlanta |
4 |
| San Diego at Kansas City |
SD 26-17 |
+9 |
+5 |
San Diego |
4 |
| Cleveland at Philadelphia |
PHI 23-12 |
-11 |
-14 |
Cleveland |
3 |
| Washington at Cincinnati |
WAS 21-12 |
+9 |
+6.5 |
Washington |
2.5 |
| New Orleans at Chicago |
CHI 23-18 |
-5 |
-3 |
Chicago |
2 |
| Buffalo at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 23-18 |
-5 |
-7 |
Buffalo |
2 |
| Seattle at St. Louis |
SEA 22-17 |
+5 |
+3 |
Seattle |
2 |
| Minnesota at Arizona |
ARI 25-20 |
-5 |
-3 |
Arizona |
2 |
| New England at Oakland |
NE 25-16 |
+9 |
+7 |
New England |
2 |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
BAL 17-14 |
-3 |
-2 |
Baltimore |
1 |
| San Francisco at Miami |
MIA 25-18 |
-7 |
-6.5 |
Miami |
.5 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 5 |
7 - 6 |
1 - 10 |
7 - 5 |
6 - 9 |
24 - 35 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 0 |
0 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 2 |
3 - 6 |
5 - 0 |
6 - 2 |
6 - 6 |
20 - 16 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 4 |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
3 - 6 |
26 - 23 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 7 |
10 - 12 |
6 - 10 |
13 - 7 |
12 - 15 |
44 - 51 |
| Underdogs |
11 - 4 |
6 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 8 |
32 - 26 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 5 |
7 - 7 |
2 - 10 |
8 - 5 |
7 - 11 |
30 - 38 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 6 |
9 - 12 |
9 - 4 |
11 - 5 |
9 - 12 |
46 - 39 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
14 - 11 |
16 - 19 |
11 - 14 |
19 - 10 |
16 - 23 |
76 - 77 |
| WIN % |
56 % |
46 % |
44 % |
66 % |
41 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 10 |
24 - 20 |
14 - 21 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 4 |
9 - 4 |
22 - 18 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| N.Y. Giants at Dallas |
NYG 25-16 |
+9 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
12 |
| Washington at Cincinnati |
WAS 26-11 |
+15 |
+6.5 |
Washington |
8.5 |
| Detroit at Indianapolis |
IND 34-9 |
-25 |
-17 |
Indianapolis |
8 |
| San Diego at Kansas City |
SD 31-18 |
+13 |
+5 |
San Diego |
8 |
| Cleveland at Philadelphia |
PHI 29-8 |
-21 |
-14 |
Philadelphia |
7 |
| San Francisco at Miami |
MIA 27-16 |
-11 |
-6.5 |
Miami |
4.5 |
| New Orleans at Chicago |
NO 23-22 |
+1 |
-3 |
New Orleans |
4 |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta |
TB 22-21 |
+1 |
-3 |
Tampa Bay |
4 |
| Tennessee at Houston |
TEN 26-19 |
+7 |
+3 |
Tennessee |
4 |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
BAL 17-12 |
-5 |
-2 |
Baltimore |
3 |
| Buffalo at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 24-19 |
-5 |
-7 |
Buffalo |
2 |
| Seattle at St. Louis |
SEA 24-19 |
+5 |
+3 |
Seattle |
2 |
| Minnesota at Arizona |
ARI 23-18 |
-5 |
-3 |
Arizona |
2 |
| New England at Oakland |
NE 25-16 |
+9 |
+7 |
New England |
2 |
| Green Bay at Jacksonville |
GB 21-20 |
+1 |
+2 |
Jacksonville |
1 |
| Denver at Carolina |
CAR 28-21 |
-7 |
-7.5 |
Denver |
.5 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
1 - 6 |
5 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
11 - 13 |
24 - 37 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
12 - 8 |
20 - 12 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 4 |
7 - 8 |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 5 |
24 - 20 |
|
| Favorites |
1 - 6 |
8 - 8 |
4 - 8 |
8 - 6 |
23 - 21 |
44 - 49 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 4 |
8 - 8 |
9 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
6 - 7 |
34 - 23 |
| Home Teams |
4 - 6 |
6 - 8 |
6 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
13 - 15 |
34 - 40 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 4 |
10 - 8 |
7 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
16 - 13 |
44 - 32 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
8 - 10 |
16 - 16 |
13 - 11 |
12 - 7 |
29 - 28 |
78 - 72 |
| WIN % |
44 % |
50 % |
54 % |
63 % |
51 % |
52 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
9 - 10 |
21 - 22 |
14 - 17 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
8 - 7 |
25 - 15 |
| 
