3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 15 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| New England at Oakland |
+7 |
+0% |
-19% |
NE |
2.0 |
NE |
5.0 |
Oakland |
19% |
| Detroit at Indianapolis |
-17 |
-16% |
+0% |
IND |
10.0 |
|
0.0 |
Detroit |
16% |
| San Diego at Kansas City |
+5 |
+4% |
-11% |
SD |
4.0 |
SD |
6.0 |
Kansas City |
15% |
| Washington at Cincinnati |
+6.5 |
-2% |
-13% |
WAS |
2.5 |
CIN |
5.5 |
Cincinnati |
11% |
| Cleveland at Philadelphia |
-14 |
-4% |
+7% |
CLE |
3.0 |
|
0.0 |
Cleveland |
11% |
| Tennessee at Houston |
+3 |
+8% |
+1% |
TEN |
6.0 |
HOU |
7.0 |
Houston |
7% |
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore |
-2 |
+8% |
+13% |
BAL |
1.0 |
PIT |
3.0 |
Pittsburgh |
5% |
| Minnesota at Arizona |
-3 |
+6% |
+1% |
ARI |
2.0 |
MIN |
1.0 |
Arizona |
5% |
| New Orleans at Chicago |
-3 |
+7% |
+3% |
CHI |
2.0 |
NO |
6.0 |
Chicago |
4% |
| San Francisco at Miami |
-6.5 |
+0% |
-3% |
MIA |
0.5 |
SF |
17.5 |
Miami |
3% |
| Seattle at St. Louis |
+3 |
-13% |
-10% |
SEA |
2.0 |
STL |
2.0 |
Seattle |
3% |
| N.Y. Giants at Dallas |
-3 |
+5% |
+8% |
NYG |
10.0 |
DAL |
6.0 |
N.Y. Giants |
3% |
| Green Bay at Jacksonville |
+2 |
+1% |
-1% |
JAX |
5.0 |
JAX |
11.0 |
Jacksonville |
2% |
| Tampa Bay at Atlanta |
-3 |
+5% |
+6% |
ATL |
4.0 |
ATL |
10.0 |
Tampa Bay |
1% |
| Denver at Carolina |
-7.5 |
+3% |
+2% |
CAR |
5.5 |
DEN |
3.5 |
Carolina |
1% |
| Buffalo at N.Y. Jets |
-7 |
+1% |
+2% |
BUF |
2.0 |
BUF |
9.0 |
Buffalo |
1% |
Season to Date Record:
23-29
| 
