Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Cincinnati at Cleveland |
CLE 23-10 |
-13 |
-3 |
Cleveland |
10 |
| Buffalo at Denver |
BUF 23-20 |
+3 |
-7 |
Buffalo |
10 |
| New Orleans at Detroit |
NO 31-16 |
+15 |
+6.5 |
New Orleans |
8.5 |
| Baltimore at Dallas |
BAL 19-16 |
+3 |
-4.5 |
Baltimore |
7.5 |
| Arizona at New England |
NE 26-23 |
-3 |
-8 |
Arizona |
5 |
| Pittsburgh at Tennessee |
TEN 17-14 |
-3 |
+1.5 |
Tennessee |
4.5 |
| San Diego at Tampa Bay |
TB 20-19 |
-1 |
-4 |
San Diego |
3 |
| Green Bay at Chicago |
CHI 22-15 |
-7 |
-4 |
Chicago |
3 |
| Philadelphia at Washington |
PHI 21-14 |
+7 |
+4.5 |
Philadelphia |
2.5 |
| Atlanta at Minnesota |
MIN 21-20 |
-1 |
-3 |
Atlanta |
2 |
| Carolina at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 23-18 |
-5 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
2 |
| San Francisco at St. Louis |
SF 24-17 |
+7 |
+5 |
San Francisco |
2 |
| Houston at Oakland |
HOU 23-18 |
+5 |
+7 |
Oakland |
2 |
| Miami at Kansas City |
MIA 22-19 |
+3 |
+4 |
Kansas City |
1 |
| Indianapolis at Jacksonville |
IND 24-17 |
+7 |
+6.5 |
Indianapolis |
.5 |
| N.Y. Jets at Seattle |
NYJ 24-19 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 7 |
7 - 7 |
2 - 10 |
7 - 5 |
6 - 10 |
25 - 39 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 0 |
0 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
7 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 2 |
4 - 7 |
5 - 1 |
6 - 3 |
6 - 6 |
21 - 19 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 4 |
7 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
3 - 7 |
27 - 25 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 9 |
11 - 14 |
7 - 11 |
13 - 8 |
12 - 16 |
46 - 58 |
| Underdogs |
11 - 4 |
7 - 8 |
6 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 9 |
34 - 28 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 7 |
7 - 8 |
4 - 10 |
8 - 5 |
7 - 12 |
32 - 42 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 6 |
11 - 14 |
9 - 5 |
11 - 6 |
9 - 13 |
48 - 44 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
14 - 13 |
18 - 22 |
13 - 15 |
19 - 11 |
16 - 25 |
80 - 86 |
| WIN % |
52 % |
45 % |
46 % |
63 % |
39 % |
48 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 11 |
26 - 23 |
14 - 24 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 5 |
10 - 4 |
23 - 19 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| New Orleans at Detroit |
NO 33-14 |
+19 |
+6.5 |
New Orleans |
12.5 |
| Miami at Kansas City |
MIA 31-16 |
+15 |
+4 |
Miami |
11 |
| San Francisco at St. Louis |
SF 27-14 |
+13 |
+5 |
San Francisco |
8 |
| Pittsburgh at Tennessee |
TEN 19-14 |
-5 |
+1.5 |
Tennessee |
6.5 |
| Indianapolis at Jacksonville |
IND 23-22 |
+1 |
+6.5 |
Jacksonville |
5.5 |
| Baltimore at Dallas |
BAL 17-16 |
+1 |
-4.5 |
Baltimore |
5.5 |
| Arizona at New England |
NE 25-22 |
-3 |
-8 |
Arizona |
5 |
| Cincinnati at Cleveland |
CLE 22-15 |
-7 |
-3 |
Cleveland |
4 |
| Carolina at N.Y. Giants |
NYG 24-17 |
-7 |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
4 |
| N.Y. Jets at Seattle |
NYJ 27-18 |
+9 |
+5 |
N.Y. Jets |
4 |
| San Diego at Tampa Bay |
TB 25-18 |
-7 |
-4 |
Tampa Bay |
3 |
| Green Bay at Chicago |
CHI 19-18 |
-1 |
-4 |
Green Bay |
3 |
| Atlanta at Minnesota |
MIN 23-18 |
-5 |
-3 |
Minnesota |
2 |
| Buffalo at Denver |
DEN 27-22 |
-5 |
-7 |
Buffalo |
2 |
| Philadelphia at Washington |
PHI 20-17 |
+3 |
+4.5 |
Washington |
1.5 |
| Houston at Oakland |
HOU 25-18 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
1 - 6 |
5 - 10 |
3 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
11 - 14 |
25 - 41 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
11 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
12 - 10 |
21 - 15 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 5 |
8 - 8 |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 6 |
25 - 22 |
|
| Favorites |
1 - 6 |
9 - 10 |
4 - 10 |
9 - 6 |
23 - 24 |
46 - 56 |
| Underdogs |
8 - 5 |
9 - 8 |
9 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
6 - 8 |
36 - 25 |
| Home Teams |
5 - 6 |
6 - 10 |
6 - 8 |
6 - 4 |
13 - 16 |
36 - 44 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 5 |
12 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
7 - 3 |
16 - 16 |
46 - 37 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
9 - 11 |
18 - 18 |
13 - 13 |
13 - 7 |
29 - 32 |
82 - 81 |
| WIN % |
45 % |
50 % |
50 % |
65 % |
48 % |
50 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
10 - 11 |
22 - 25 |
14 - 20 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
9 - 8 |
26 - 16 |
| 
