3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 16 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Houston at Oakland |
+7 |
+3% |
-21% |
OAK |
2.0 |
HOU |
6.0 |
Oakland |
24% |
| New Orleans at Detroit |
+6.5 |
+6% |
-15% |
NO |
8.5 |
NO |
6.5 |
Detroit |
21% |
| San Francisco at St. Louis |
+5 |
+2% |
-11% |
SF |
2.0 |
SF |
4.0 |
St. Louis |
13% |
| N.Y. Jets at Seattle |
+5 |
+2% |
-11% |
|
0.0 |
SEA |
6.0 |
Seattle |
13% |
| Philadelphia at Washington |
+4.5 |
+9% |
-1% |
PHI |
2.5 |
PHI |
2.5 |
Washington |
10% |
| Cincinnati at Cleveland |
-3 |
-12% |
-7% |
CLE |
10.0 |
CIN |
1.0 |
Cincinnati |
5% |
| Arizona at New England |
-8 |
-1% |
+3% |
ARI |
5.0 |
ARI |
3.0 |
Arizona |
4% |
| Indianapolis at Jacksonville |
+6.5 |
+1% |
-2% |
IND |
0.5 |
JAX |
9.5 |
Jacksonville |
3% |
| Baltimore at Dallas |
-4.5 |
+11% |
+8% |
BAL |
7.5 |
DAL |
1.5 |
Dallas |
3% |
| Miami at Kansas City |
+4 |
-5% |
-8% |
KC |
1.0 |
KC |
5.0 |
Kansas City |
3% |
| Carolina at N.Y. Giants |
-3 |
+1% |
+4% |
NYG |
2.0 |
CAR |
4.0 |
Carolina |
3% |
| Pittsburgh at Tennessee |
+1.5 |
+8% |
+6% |
TEN |
4.5 |
TEN |
1.5 |
Tennessee |
2% |
| Atlanta at Minnesota |
-3 |
+7% |
+8% |
ATL |
2.0 |
ATL |
6.0 |
Atlanta |
1% |
| Buffalo at Denver |
-7 |
+2% |
+3% |
BUF |
10.0 |
BUF |
8.0 |
Buffalo |
1% |
| San Diego at Tampa Bay |
-4 |
+2% |
+3% |
SD |
3.0 |
SD |
8.0 |
San Diego |
1% |
| Green Bay at Chicago |
-4 |
+2% |
+3% |
CHI |
3.0 |
CHI |
2.0 |
Green Bay |
1% |
Season to Date Record:
25-30
| 
