Drive Chart Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Drive Chart Stats we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Detroit at Green Bay |
GB 32-13 |
-19 |
-10 |
Green Bay |
9 |
| N.Y. Giants at Minnesota |
NYG 21-20 |
+1 |
-6.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
7.5 |
| St. Louis at Atlanta |
ATL 31-10 |
-21 |
-15 |
Atlanta |
6 |
| Dallas at Philadelphia |
PHI 22-15 |
-7 |
-1.5 |
Philadelphia |
5.5 |
| Denver at San Diego |
SD 31-18 |
-13 |
-8.5 |
San Diego |
4.5 |
| Kansas City at Cincinnati |
KC 19-18 |
+1 |
-3 |
Kansas City |
4 |
| Tennessee at Indianapolis |
IND 19-18 |
-1 |
+3 |
Indianapolis |
4 |
| Carolina at New Orleans |
NO 23-22 |
-1 |
+3 |
New Orleans |
4 |
| New England at Buffalo |
NE 23-20 |
+3 |
+6.5 |
Buffalo |
3.5 |
| Chicago at Houston |
CHI 21-18 |
+3 |
+0 |
Chicago |
3 |
| Seattle at Arizona |
ARI 27-18 |
-9 |
-6 |
Arizona |
3 |
| Oakland at Tampa Bay |
TB 25-10 |
-15 |
-13 |
Tampa Bay |
2 |
| Jacksonville at Baltimore |
BAL 25-12 |
-13 |
-12 |
Baltimore |
1 |
| Washington at San Francisco |
SF 20-18 |
-2 |
-3 |
Washington |
1 |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh |
PIT 21-10 |
-11 |
-10.5 |
Pittsburgh |
.5 |
| Miami at N.Y. Jets |
NYJ 23-20 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
3 - 7 |
8 - 8 |
2 - 10 |
7 - 5 |
6 - 11 |
26 - 41 |
| HomeDogs |
3 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
3 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
9 - 4 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 2 |
4 - 9 |
5 - 1 |
6 - 3 |
7 - 6 |
23 - 21 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 4 |
9 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 7 |
31 - 26 |
|
| Favorites |
4 - 9 |
12 - 17 |
7 - 11 |
13 - 8 |
13 - 17 |
49 - 62 |
| Underdogs |
11 - 5 |
10 - 8 |
7 - 5 |
7 - 3 |
5 - 9 |
40 - 30 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 8 |
9 - 9 |
5 - 10 |
8 - 5 |
7 - 13 |
35 - 45 |
| Away Teams |
9 - 6 |
13 - 16 |
9 - 6 |
12 - 6 |
11 - 13 |
54 - 47 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
15 - 14 |
22 - 25 |
14 - 16 |
20 - 11 |
18 - 26 |
89 - 92 |
| WIN % |
52 % |
47 % |
47 % |
65 % |
41 % |
49 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 11 |
28 - 24 |
15 - 27 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 5 |
12 - 5 |
27 - 20 |
Play-By-Play Overlay Summary
Using our exclusive Play-By-Play ratings we create a predicted score
for every game each week. By comparing our projection to the
actual line you can find games where there is a significant
difference (the Overlay). The strongest historical plays have been
underdogs with a 4+ point overlay.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
TMW
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Detroit at Green Bay |
GB 34-9 |
-25 |
-10 |
Green Bay |
15 |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh |
PIT 28-6 |
-22 |
-10.5 |
Pittsburgh |
11.5 |
| N.Y. Giants at Minnesota |
NYG 21-18 |
+3 |
-6.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
9.5 |
| Dallas at Philadelphia |
PHI 24-13 |
-11 |
-1.5 |
Philadelphia |
9.5 |
| St. Louis at Atlanta |
ATL 33-12 |
-21 |
-15 |
Atlanta |
6 |
| Carolina at New Orleans |
NO 25-22 |
-3 |
+3 |
New Orleans |
6 |
| Miami at N.Y. Jets |
MIA 25-22 |
+3 |
-3 |
Miami |
6 |
| Seattle at Arizona |
ARI 28-17 |
-11 |
-6 |
Arizona |
5 |
| Washington at San Francisco |
WAS 20-19 |
+1 |
-3 |
Washington |
4 |
| Denver at San Diego |
SD 29-24 |
-5 |
-8.5 |
Denver |
3.5 |
| Chicago at Houston |
HOU 23-20 |
-3 |
+0 |
Houston |
3 |
| Oakland at Tampa Bay |
TB 26-11 |
-15 |
-13 |
Tampa Bay |
2 |
| New England at Buffalo |
NE 25-20 |
+5 |
+6.5 |
Buffalo |
1.5 |
| Jacksonville at Baltimore |
BAL 24-13 |
-11 |
-12 |
Jacksonville |
1 |
| Kansas City at Cincinnati |
CIN 22-19 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
0 |
| Tennessee at Indianapolis |
TEN 23-20 |
+3 |
+3 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
1 - 6 |
5 - 12 |
4 - 8 |
5 - 4 |
11 - 14 |
26 - 44 |
| HomeDogs |
5 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
2 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
13 - 4 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
14 - 11 |
23 - 17 |
| AwayDogs |
4 - 5 |
10 - 8 |
7 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
4 - 6 |
28 - 23 |
|
| Favorites |
1 - 6 |
9 - 12 |
5 - 12 |
9 - 6 |
25 - 25 |
49 - 61 |
| Underdogs |
9 - 5 |
11 - 8 |
10 - 5 |
5 - 1 |
6 - 8 |
41 - 27 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 6 |
6 - 12 |
7 - 10 |
7 - 4 |
13 - 16 |
39 - 48 |
| Away Teams |
4 - 5 |
14 - 8 |
8 - 7 |
7 - 3 |
18 - 17 |
51 - 40 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
10 - 11 |
20 - 20 |
15 - 17 |
14 - 7 |
31 - 33 |
90 - 88 |
| WIN % |
48 % |
50 % |
47 % |
67 % |
48 % |
51 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
10 - 11 |
23 - 27 |
16 - 23 |
| Underdogs |
1 - 1 |
10 - 10 |
30 - 16 |
| 
