3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 17 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Detroit at Green Bay |
-10 |
-18% |
+3% |
GB |
9.0 |
GB |
1.0 |
Detroit |
21% |
| Oakland at Tampa Bay |
-13 |
-17% |
+2% |
TB |
2.0 |
|
0.0 |
Oakland |
19% |
| St. Louis at Atlanta |
-15 |
-11% |
+7% |
ATL |
6.0 |
ATL |
1.0 |
St. Louis |
18% |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh |
-10.5 |
-7% |
+9% |
PIT |
0.5 |
PIT |
5.5 |
Cleveland |
16% |
| Jacksonville at Baltimore |
-12 |
-2% |
+9% |
BAL |
1.0 |
JAX |
7.0 |
Jacksonville |
11% |
| Carolina at New Orleans |
+3 |
+1% |
+10% |
NO |
4.0 |
NO |
9.0 |
Carolina |
9% |
| Seattle at Arizona |
-6 |
-11% |
-4% |
ARI |
3.0 |
ARI |
1.0 |
Seattle |
7% |
| New England at Buffalo |
+6.5 |
+4% |
+0% |
BUF |
3.5 |
BUF |
7.5 |
Buffalo |
4% |
| Miami at N.Y. Jets |
-3 |
-2% |
+2% |
|
0.0 |
NYJ |
6.0 |
Miami |
4% |
| N.Y. Giants at Minnesota |
-6.5 |
+4% |
+7% |
NYG |
7.5 |
MIN |
0.5 |
N.Y. Giants |
3% |
| Tennessee at Indianapolis |
+3 |
+3% |
+1% |
IND |
4.0 |
IND |
4.0 |
Indianapolis |
2% |
| Washington at San Francisco |
-3 |
+0% |
+2% |
WAS |
1.0 |
SF |
12.0 |
Washington |
2% |
| Kansas City at Cincinnati |
-3 |
-10% |
-11% |
KC |
4.0 |
|
0.0 |
Cincinnati |
1% |
| Chicago at Houston |
+0 |
+2% |
+1% |
CHI |
3.0 |
HOU |
5.0 |
Houston |
1% |
| Denver at San Diego |
-8.5 |
+5% |
+4% |
SD |
4.5 |
DEN |
6.5 |
San Diego |
1% |
| Dallas at Philadelphia |
-1.5 |
+8% |
+8% |
PHI |
5.5 |
DAL |
0.5 |
|
0% |
Season to Date Record:
27-30
| 
