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    TwoMinuteWarning.com
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    Playoffs
    Wild Cards

    3rd Down Contrarian

    This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.

    For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?

     53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
    61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees
    59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees
     48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
    * 3rd Down diff 6%+

    NFL Week 18 , 2008
    Matchup
    Line
    (home)
    Away
    3rd%
    Home
    3rd%
    DC
    Pick
    DC
    Diff
    DC/TO
    Pick
    DC/TO
    Diff
    3rd Down
    Pick
    Diff
    Baltimore at Miami
    +3
    +8%
    -3%
    BAL
    2.0
    BAL
    6.0
    Miami
    11%
    Atlanta at Arizona
    +2.5
    +6%
    -3%
    ARI
    1.5
    ATL
    0.5
    Arizona
    9%
    Indianapolis at San Diego
    +1.5
    +2%
    +5%
    SD
    0.5
    SD
    5.5
    Indianapolis
    3%
    Philadelphia at Minnesota
    +3
    +9%
    +8%
    MIN
    2.0
    MIN
    6.0
    Minnesota
    1%


    Season to Date Record:
    27-31