3rd Down Contrarian
This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using
the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.
For the full research article see: Outside Rushing: a key to success?
53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
| 61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees |
| 59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees |
48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
* 3rd Down diff 6%+
NFL Week 19 , 2008
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away
3rd% |
Home
3rd% |
DC
Pick |
DC
Diff |
DC/TO
Pick |
DC/TO
Diff |
3rd Down
Pick |
Diff |
| Baltimore at Tennessee |
-3 |
+8% |
+2% |
BAL |
2.0 |
BAL |
3.0 |
Tennessee |
6% |
| San Diego at Pittsburgh |
-6 |
+5% |
+11% |
PIT |
1.0 |
PIT |
4.0 |
San Diego |
6% |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
-4 |
+9% |
+4% |
PHI |
1.0 |
PHI |
5.0 |
N.Y. Giants |
5% |
| Arizona at Carolina |
-9.5 |
-3% |
+1% |
ARI |
2.5 |
ARI |
5.5 |
Arizona |
4% |
Season to Date Record:
28-31
| 
