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    Conference
    Championships

    3rd Down Contrarian

    This prediction tool is based on some original research by Nathan using the TMW down by down stats. Combining a contrarian view of 3rd down success rates with the DC or DC/TO has looked strong.

    For the full research article see: Third Down Contrarian

     53% -- 3rd Down + DC + DC/TO agree
    61% -- 3rd Down + DC agree, DC/TO disagrees
    59% -- 3rd Down + DC/TO agree, DC disagrees
     48% -- 3rd Down disagrees with both DC + DC/TO
    * 3rd Down diff 6%+

    NFL Week 20 , 2008
    Matchup
    Line
    (home)
    Away
    3rd%
    Home
    3rd%
    DC
    Pick
    DC
    Diff
    DC/TO
    Pick
    DC/TO
    Diff
    3rd Down
    Pick
    Diff
    Philadelphia at Arizona
    +3.5
    +9%
    -1%
    ARI
    0.5
    ARI
    0.5
    Arizona
    10%
    Baltimore at Pittsburgh
    -6
    +7%
    +11%
    BAL
    5.0
    PIT
    4.0
    Baltimore
    4%


    Season to Date Record:
    28-31