Drive Chart Turnover Overlays
Our research has shown that combining the drive chart predicted scores with
some of the 'Turnover Difference' theories yields a highly predictive forecast against the spread.
For more background on this TwoMinuteWarning tool, please see the
DC/TO article series.
| Match-up |
Predicted Score |
DCTO
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Pittsburgh at Arizona |
PIT 22-15 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
0 |
2008 Season Performance (Week 4 on)
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
2 - 6 |
7 - 6 |
7 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
9 - 13 |
30 - 35 |
| HomeDogs |
4 - 3 |
1 - 3 |
5 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
19 - 18 |
| AwayFavs |
1 - 2 |
4 - 3 |
1 - 3 |
4 - 4 |
5 - 5 |
15 - 17 |
| AwayDogs |
5 - 3 |
12 - 6 |
8 - 8 |
5 - 6 |
12 - 5 |
42 - 28 |
|
| Favorites |
3 - 8 |
11 - 9 |
8 - 9 |
9 - 8 |
14 - 18 |
45 - 52 |
| Underdogs |
9 - 6 |
13 - 9 |
13 - 12 |
9 - 10 |
17 - 9 |
61 - 46 |
| Home Teams |
6 - 9 |
8 - 9 |
12 - 10 |
9 - 8 |
14 - 17 |
49 - 53 |
| Away Teams |
6 - 5 |
16 - 9 |
9 - 11 |
9 - 10 |
17 - 10 |
57 - 45 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
12 - 14 |
24 - 18 |
21 - 21 |
18 - 18 |
31 - 27 |
106 - 98 |
| WIN % |
46 % |
57 % |
50 % |
50 % |
53 % |
52 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
6 - 7 |
17 - 18 |
22 - 27 |
| Underdogs |
3 - 5 |
22 - 22 |
36 - 19 |
| 
