Part VI -- Do Preseason Records Matter?
We've published a number of pieces that attempt to improve your odds when betting on preseason games, but now it's perhaps time to look forward and ask whether the preseason results can be helpful in predicting regular season events. The most fundamental question is simply do the preseason won-lost records have any bearing on how a team performs for real?
Our data sample covers the seasons from 1997 to 2001 (a five-year span) and we will begin by simply tracking all teams based on how many preseason wins they accrue:
Preseason
Wins |
Number of
cases |
Average
Wins |
Average
Change |
Wins:
10+ |
Wins:
7-9 |
Wins:
<7 |
| 0 |
11 |
7.1 |
0.4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
| 1 |
39 |
7.6 |
0.3 |
12 |
11 |
16 |
| 2 |
46 |
7.2 |
-0.6 |
11 |
14 |
21 |
| 3 |
41 |
9.0 |
0.0 |
17 |
17 |
7 |
| 4+ |
16 |
8.9 |
0.9 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
First some explanation of the terms above: "Average Wins" reflects the average wins during the regular season, "Average Change" represents the difference in regular season wins this year compared to last year, and the three "Wins" categories show the number of teams reaching certain win levels.
The short answer then is that preseason results do seem to matter in that teams with three or more preseason victories are markedly better than teams with fewer wins, and the rare teams which go winless in preseason are indeed facing trouble in the regular season as well.
Another way to make the case that teams should go for wins in the exhibitions is that teams which won four or more games went on to win 10+ games in the regular season 50% of the time, whereas of the teams which were winless in the exhibition season, only two of eleven or 18% were able to post double digit wins.
The next logical progression for our research though is to break out the teams by their prior season performance, and we'll do that using our traditional "G-A-P" criteria where a Good team gets 10+ wins, and Average team gets 7 to 9 wins, and a Poor team has less than 7 wins.
Good Teams: 10+ prior year wins
Preseason
Wins |
Number of
cases |
Average
Wins |
Average
Change |
Wins:
10+ |
Wins:
7-9 |
Wins:
<7 |
| 0 |
1 |
7.0 |
-5.0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
| 1 |
10 |
9.0 |
-1.7 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
| 2 |
13 |
8.6 |
-3.3 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
| 3 |
20 |
9.5 |
-2.2 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
| 4+ |
4 |
9.2 |
-2.0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Not so strong a difference here -- good teams perhaps do not need a good preseason to springboard to a strong regular season effort.
Average Teams: 7 to 9 prior year wins
Preseason
Wins |
Number of
cases |
Average
Wins |
Average
Change |
Wins:
10+ |
Wins:
7-9 |
Wins:
<7 |
| 0 |
5 |
7.8 |
-0.2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
| 1 |
12 |
6.9 |
-1.3 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
| 2 |
18 |
6.8 |
-1.0 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
| 3 |
12 |
8.9 |
0.6 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
| 4+ |
7 |
9.7 |
1.2 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
A very strong division here -- prior season average teams that post three or more preseason wins have averaged 9.2 wins and have hit the magic 10 win mark 47% of the time, while prior season average teams with less than three preseason wins have averaged 7.0 regular season victories and only made the 10+ level 17% of the time!
Poor Teams: less than 7 prior year wins
Preseason
Wins |
Number of
cases |
Average
Wins |
Average
Change |
Wins:
10+ |
Wins:
7-9 |
Wins:
<7 |
| 0 |
5 |
6.5 |
2.1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
| 1 |
17 |
7.4 |
2.7 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
| 2 |
15 |
6.5 |
2.1 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
| 3 |
9 |
8.1 |
4.2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
| 4+ |
5 |
7.6 |
2.7 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Again there's some evidence to believe that poor teams with good preseason records stand a better shot of being competitive in the regular season. Nine of fourteen have won at least seven games the next year.
From the above then we can conclude with the following:
- Preseason wins are generally a positive sign for a team
- Three plus wins is a very good sign, zero wins is a particularly negative sign
- Good teams can succeed regardless of their preseason
- Average teams are much better prospects if they post three preseason wins
- Poor teams with three preseason wins have a good shot at moving up in "class"
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