Part II --
Are preseason records predictive for the first four weeks of the regular season?
We ran some research looking at preseason records and the results in the opening week of the regular season, but the follow-on here will look at the first four weeks, since that is still the early going when teams are coming together and finding out who they are.
Our data sample again uses the same five year span of seasons from 1997 to 2001 and we will begin by simply tracking all teams based on how many preseason wins they accrue:
Results in the first four weeks of the regular season
Preseason
Wins |
Spread Record
Home |
Home % |
Spread Record
Away |
Away % |
Total
Spread Record |
Total % |
| 0 |
8-13 |
38% |
16-3 |
85% |
24-16 |
60% |
| 1 |
32-30 |
51% |
38-39 |
49% |
70-69 |
50% |
| 2 |
37-45 |
45% |
37-42 |
47% |
74-87 |
46% |
| 3 |
35-40 |
46% |
43-29 |
60% |
78-69 |
53% |
| 4+ |
14-18 |
43% |
12-13 |
48% |
26-31 |
46% |
There are only three cells worth commenting on in the above -- teams with zero preseason wins are poor at home (8-13) but incredible on the road (16-3) in the early going over the past five years. Additionally, teams with precisely three preseason wins have been a respectable 60% play on the road.
Let's move on to the second breakout, where we examine the results by favorite/underdog roles:
Note: with pick'em games the home team is treated as the underdog
Results in the first four weeks of the regular season
Preseason
Wins |
Spread Record
as Favorite |
Fav. % |
Spread Record
as Underdog |
Dog. % |
| 0 |
5-10 |
33% |
19-6 |
76% |
| 1 |
22-28 |
44% |
48-41 |
54% |
| 2 |
38-43 |
47% |
36-44 |
45% |
| 3 |
48-41 |
54% |
30-28 |
52% |
| 4+ |
17-20 |
46% |
9-11 |
45% |
No real substantive change from our first table, the above just reinforces the zero win preseason teams as the key ones to watch in the early going.
One theory regarding preseason records is that they reflect the depth of a team's player personnel, not so much the stars. The belief presumes that the teams with greater depth (eg strong backups, multiple veterans at a position) will post better preseason records since it is the backups who usually account for the wins and losses in the exhibition season games.
If you buy this theory, then you would assume that the preseason results might be more telling in the latter parts of the regular season, when injuries have started to take their toll and the teams with greater depth will be replacing starters more readily than the teams with little depth (who presumably came off poor preseason W-L marks).
For some fun we ran a little test on results in the latter part of the regular season from various stages:
Results beyond the first four weeks of the regular season
Preseason
Wins |
Spread Record
Wks 5-8 |
Spread Record
Wks 9-12 |
Spread Record
Wks 13-17 |
| 0 |
48% |
47% |
53% |
| 1 |
50% |
48% |
49% |
| 2 |
46% |
45% |
46% |
| 3 |
54% |
53% |
47% |
| 4+ |
49% |
59% |
61% |
Proponents of the "deeper roster" theory would like to see a smooth curve for the above where the more preseason wins, the better the team fared later in the season. Of course, that didn't exactly happen, with the exception of the 4+ win group who did indeed perform with stellar spread results the deeper the season went. However, we would be reluctant to attribute that to depth alone.
The preseason is what it is -- a cash cow for the league, a chance to try out new players and some new schemes (without giving too much away), a chance to get the regulars warmed up, and a period in which coaches sweat it out on the sideline, praying that no key player gets hurt!
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