“There are two sides to every story.” Last time we looked at how teams have historically performed the week after a bye, this go-round we’ll look at how they perform the week before a bye.

Teams coming back from a bye get a lot of attention from handicappers, with the common perception being that it’s a positive (when in fact there are certain situations where “back from a bye” teams have been horrible bets against the spread). On the other hand the fact that a team has a week off coming up is often thought of as inconsequential by handicappers.

We’ll examine today whether overlooking this situational factor is a mistake.

The thinking goes that teams coming off a bye are well rested, healed from injuries, well prepared for the next opponent, and perhaps armed with some new twists in the basic game plan. What would be the comparable assortment of factors for a squad with a week off around the corner? It might include:

• Play through pain: knowing there is a break ahead might lead players to “grin and bear it” for more than the typical NFL punishment doled out to the body every game, understanding that they will have extra recovery time afterwards.
• Extra pressure to get the win/make a good showing: a successful coaching change mid-season is easier to pull off when the new coach comes in with two weeks rather than one to get the new system installed. Consequently coaches on the hot seat may well feel it’s a do or die game prior to the bye.
• Extra pressure on struggling starters to play well and keep their job: just as coaches are more easily replaced during a bye span, so too would it make sense to make a shift in player roles when there’s extra time to make the adjustments. Players looking over their shoulder will want to show up big.
• Go into the “vacation” on an upbeat note: even teams without unusual pressure to win a game will most likely feel a lot better if they can notch the W the week before the bye. Players could feel it will lead to a more relaxed attitude during the off-week, instead of a return to training camp rigors! Coaches can also feel better about backing off a little if things went well in the last game.

Fortunately at TwoMinuteWarning.com we have the resources to provide a more statistically sound answer on what influence a team having a bye week coming up should have on your handicapping.

Here are some results for a team against the spread in the week prior to a bye, when facing an opponent that will play the following week:

Some explanation is necessary: the off win/loss refers to the team’s last game prior to the game before the bye.

There are some interesting things to note from the above. First of all, home underdogs and away favorites have been bad bets against the spread when they have a bye looming ahead. The outlook for away dogs doesn’t change greatly because of an imminent break in the schedule, whereas for home favorites it’s been a matter of the outcome of the previous game - off a loss they have struggled, off a win they have been quite good.

From this we can formulate some theories for wagering purposes:

- Play against away favorites prior to a bye
- Play against home underdogs off a loss prior to a bye
- Consider home favorites off a win prior to a bye
- Look to beat home favorites off prior to a week’s break

Now, it’s always a good idea to test out initial conclusions against a fresh set of data. We intentionally set aside the 2001 season results from the table above and can use this to re-check the angles.

In 2001, away favorites were 0-3 prior to a bye, home underdogs were 2-2 off a loss prior to a bye, home favorites off a win prior to a week away were 2-2…and finally home favorites off a loss were 0-2. Putting it all together if we had played the angles as specified, it would have led to a respectable 9-4 record.

This is not of course a great deal of history to go on when you walk up the counter to place a wager, but it should be a nice complement to your current methods.