Week 7:
MREAST
Guest capper MREAST has been capping games for over 25 years. he is not a tout, does not sell picks, instead offers his vast knowledge and unique approach to sports wagering for FREE at sharpactionsports.com
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY
One of the things I like to do as a capper is make next weeks lines before this weeks games. It allows me to eliminate the "one week" bias created by lopsided games. The oddsmakers know your habits, and you can bet the big winners are juiced the following week, and if you learn how to make your own accurate lines, you will understand where the value is. I cap every game differently, it depends on what the game situation is. I cap systematically, statistically, emotionally, motivationally, whatever the game calls for in my mind. I have many systems, some of which I'll apply to this game, none in which are backfitted, all one condition systems. San Diego sure has the look of a Superbowl caliber team. The worry about Rivers at the throttle of the offense, have been answered, and the defense has been playing well. The Chiefs look like anything but a playoff contender, but I love them in this situation. The Chiefs are in a role they relish, and that is being at Arrowhead, in an und erdog role. You have to go back a long way to find them +5.5 or more at home. let's take a look at the Chiefs in this role as a +4.5 dog or more at home (allowing for some line movement).
00-01:
6-0 STL -7 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 54-34
89-90:
2-1 CINN -4.5 WINS BY 4 CHIEFS COVER
88-89:
8-2 CINN -7 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 31-28
1-1 DENVER -5.5 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 20-13
87-88:
9-5 SEATTLE -6 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 41-20
2-2 DENVER -12 win by 9 CHIEFS COVER
5-7 OAKLAND -5 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 16-10
86-87:
10-3 DENVER -5 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 37-10
84-85:
12-2 SEATTLE -5 CHIEFS WIN OUTRIGHT 34-7
83-84:
0-1 SD -5 win by 3 CHIEFS COVER
The past 23 years have seen the Chiefs as a home dog of 4.5 or more 10 times. They have gone 7-3 SU and 10-0 ATS in these games. The opponents combined record coming in was 55-24, the Chiefs record 25-54.
There have been some very good teams that have come into Kansas City, and left wondering what happened. Let's take a look:
05-06 DENVER 9-2 LOST OUTRIGHT
04-05 NEW ENGLAND 8-1 WON
02-03 MIAMI 3-0 LOST OUTRIGHT
00-01 DENVER 10-4 LOST OUTRIGHT
00-01 STL 6-0 LOST OUTRIGHT
98-99 DENVER 9-0 WON
97-98 SF 11-1 LOST OUTRIGHT
97-98 DENVER 9-1 LOST OUTRIGHT
96-97 GREEN BAY 8-1 LOST OUTRIGHT
92-93 PHILA 4-0 LOST OUTRIGHT
91-92 BUFFALO 5-0 LOST OUTRIGHT
88-89 CINN 8-2 LOST OUTRIGHT
86-87 DENVER 10-3 LOST OUTRIGHT
84-85 DENVER 11-2 LOST OUTRIGHT
84-85 SEATTLE 12-2 LOST OUTRIGHT
The beginning of this I stated how SD is taking on the look of a Superbowl contender. The last 23 years has seen 8 Superbowl winners lose outright as a favorite in KC! This list above is from teams that came in with a 123-19 cummulative record, they left with 13 losses..almost as many as they had combined coming in. That's right 13 outright winners! The past 23 years has seen KC go 35-9-2 ATS as a home dog, and 31-15 SU! That is over 67% winners as a dog!
HERE IS THE BREAKDOWN:
+4.5 or more 10-0
+4 or more 12-1
+3.5 or more 14-2
+3 or more 22-6-2
+2.5 or more 26-6-2
+2 or more 29-6-2
+1.5 or more 33-6-2
+1 or more 35-9-2
There is other things I like about this game. One of the things I always do is give a look to the team that lost by the most points the previous week. There is a reason for that. MOTIVATION! I am speaking as an X-professional athlete, and nothing hurts more than getting embarrassed at what you do on a field for a living! The practices are unbearable, the mindset is tough, and you want redemption soon! It also affords the greatest line value of any game on the board, because the general public is looking to fade these teams, not play them, so they get a juiced line, chock full of a few extra points. let's see how this all translates to ATS W's?
PLAY ON THE TEAM THAT LOST BY THE MOST POINTS THE WEEK BEFORE:
2005: 11-4
Some examples you may remember.
GB crushes No 52-3, next week NO loses but just by 3 as a +5.5!!!
PHILA is humiliated on a Monday night by SEATTLE 42-0! Next week PHIL +9 loses by just 3
NYG crush WASH 36-0, WASH comes back as a -3 and wins 17-10!
PITT crushes CLEVE 41-0 Cleve as a +3 wins 20-16
WASH 52-17 over SF ...SF wins 15-10 as a +11!!!
2006:
After a loss in week 2 these teams have gone 4-1.
WEEK #2: SD 40 TENN 7
TENN comes back as a +10.5 and covers losing by 3.
WEEK #3: NO humiliates ATL on national TV 23-3, ATL comes back and wins 32-10 as a -7.5
WEEK #4: DALLAS 45 TENN 14, TENN comes back as a +17 and almost wins outright losing to INDY by 1.
WEEK #5: JACK destroys the NYJ 41-0...Jets as a -2 win 20-17!!!
So 11-4, and 4-1 or 15-5 last 2 years. What do you think these teams mindsets are coming into these games? They are ready to bring it! KC was last week's biggest loser by 38 points 45-7. Guess who is going to bring it this week?
One other thing I like to look at is a teams time of possession in its previous game. I have noticed for some reason that teams that hold the ball for 35+ minutes in their previous games, do not fare well ATS the following week. SD had the ball for 35:48 last week vs SF.
Last but not least. I always look at the 3 biggest public favorites. last week these teams went 2-1 ATS, to improve to a disappointing 6-12 ATS in the 1st 6 weeks. One favor you need to do for yourself is to look at these 3 teams, and cross them off your list! You will be starting from a hole. I always look at them and try to find a reason to take the otherside, or pass! This week the largest public favorite is SD. it is running from 80-90%+ at various outs. it was to be expected. SD wins by 29, KC loses by 38! I made my lines before last week and had this a PK! Where is the line value?
I have made my choice, and hope I presented some solid information to back it up. This game caps out as one of the highest of the year for me, but guess what? I will play it for the exact same as any other game! I hope if you decide to play along, you do the same.
HERE IS WHY:
A baseball player that can hit .300 over a lifetime is a Hall of Famer. A baseball player that hits .250 is a journeyman. The difference? One hit every 20 at bats! A capper that can hold 55% over a lifetime is a Hall of Fame caliber capper. A capper that holds 50% is bankrupt. The difference? One game out of every 20! SAME THING! So do not waste a pick ever! Do not double units on a game, because if it loses guess what? You are a 55% capper that is now losing! No matter how good we think we are, the fact is the difference between bankrupt and Hall of Fame is capping 1 game right out of 20! If we bet even 1 parlay, we lose the advantage. If we mismanage money and bet more on a "lock" we lose the advantage. If we bet 1 teaser, we lose the advantage. If we bet one mid week game because it is on TV, we lose our advantage. No matter how good a capper you are, you control the outcome just 1 time in 20!! So there is no lock! Do not waste games, or you lose. That is why the public loses, don't fall into the trap.
I wish everyone the best, and thanks Twominutewarning for giving me the opportunity to share some of my thoughts. I write extensive articles on all topics at sharpactionsports.com drop in and say hi, I am very approachable.
Thanks,
MREAST
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