The second half of the regular College Football season provides some terrific opportunities for technical handicappers that revolve around undefeated College Football teams. This is due in part to such teams being over-valued because they're fighting to win a National Championship. And we can also take advantage of the attention given to unbeaten teams by playing against them after their initial loss of the season (the 'bubble-burst' theory), or even playing against the teams that hand them their first loss. I have about 15 systems which incorporate these ideas, but here are the ones that are active this week (but please bear in mind that, just because I have a system on a game, it does not necessarily mean that I recommend playing that side).

Play against any undefeated team that has a record of 8-0 (or better), if they're on the road, and matched up against a foe with a win percentage between .666 and .875. This system's record is 35-5-1 ATS since 1980, and has one play this week:

California +19 over USC

I really like this angle since, at Games 9 through 12 of the Regular Season, we're dealing with the cream of the crop. College Football teams don't start the year with an 8-0 record unless they're really good. Still, even though these teams represent the 'best of the best' that College Football has to offer, when they go on the road and face a team whose record ranges from 6-3 to 7-1, they really falter. And it's not just against the spread. Our unbeaten teams also check in with an 18-23-2 record, straight-up. It's worth noting that our unbeaten teams won every game straight-up (10-0 SU, 2-8 ATS) when they were favored by more than 10 points (as USC is vs. California), but they are a poor 6-14-2 straight-up and 2-19-1 ATS as favorites of -10 points or less. Certainly, anytime one can win 35 of 40 games, any subset analysis is going to yield strong numbers, but there are two tighteners to this system worth noting. First, our unbeaten teams are 1-21 ATS vs. conference foes with revenge (with the only point spread loss coming by 1.5 points). And, second, the angle is 'red-hot' of late, going 19-1 ATS since 1995 (with the only loss by 2.5 points). California is the angle's first play of the 2005 season. Last year, it went 2-0 with winners on Texas A&M +12 over Oklahoma and Wyoming +21 over Utah.

Let's take a look at another system which focuses on unbeaten teams that are installed as Underdogs. What we want to do is play against any underdog of more than 2 points, if they have a 7-0 record (or better) and are matched up against a foe whose record is 7-1 (or worse). This system has a record of 21-5 ATS, and has one play this week:

LSU -3 over Alabama

Les Miles' Tigers are 7-1 on the season, and favored by a field goal over the 9-0 Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. There are, however, two parts of this system which are mediocre. First, undefeated home dogs are 2-2 ATS. And, second, teams playing with revenge are 4-4 ATS. Both of these .500 subsets apply to Alabama here, as the Crimson Tide lost 26-10 to LSU last year. Still, this system has been a consistent winner, and squeaked out a half-point win earlier this season with Florida -3.5 over Georgia.

Finally, let's take a look at how teams do off an upset win over an unbeaten team (that started the year 5-0 or better). When a College team pulls such an upset, it is generally the biggest win of its season. So it's no surprise that these teams tend to fall flat on their faces in their next game -- and especially if that game is played away from home against a weaker foe that doesn't quite command our upsetter's attention. Indeed, if we play against a Road Favorite of less than 22 points off an upset win over a 5-0 (or better) foe, we get a 22-5 ATS record since 1980. This year, we've had just two plays prior to this weekend, and both were nice winners with Washington St +4 over UCLA (following UCLA's upset win over a 5-0 Cal squad), and Virginia +1 over North Carolina (following the Tar Heels' upset of 5-0 Florida State). Now, on Saturday, we get the third play of the season following the upset of 8-0 Virginia Tech by the Miami Hurricanes:

Wake Forest +17 over Miami Fla

This system has won 11 straight games since October 31, 1998, and is also 6-0 when our team is getting more than 10 points.

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie