The next question is then where does this season compare to other seasons? If favorites are normally just a 48% play, have there been other seasons where they have covered like this? In short, the answer is no. If you look at the chart, the best season favorites have had was in 1990 when they went 114-99-5 53.52%. When you subtract the juice, favorites would have won you just over 5 units. That’s the best season they have ever had. Now, we know they are winning at an extremely high rate this season compared to where they have been overall in the past. We also know they are well above the best season ever for favorites. That makes this season an unbelievable season for the favorites. The next chart shows the record for favorites since 1983 at this point in the season (after week nine). While the favorites, as pointed out before, have never been covering at this high a rate, even at this point in the season, there have been eight seasons where they have been 50% or better at this point in the season, which is above the overall percentage of 48%.
The chart also shows the records for favorites from week ten on each season. The record during those eight seasons prior to week ten was 484-428-31 53.07%. The combined record for favorites from week ten on in those seasons was just 412-468-30 46.82%. Not only did their win percentage drop from 53.07% to 46.82%. Every single season, the record for the favorites dropped considerably by around 4% or more in each season. In other words, even when the favorites continue to roll on like they will never lose again, they will eventually fall back down to earth.
I thought it was important to show not only what is happening this season but also what has happened from this time out in similar seasons of the past. For those who primarily play favorites, just know this season has been quite unbelievable but that stands a good chance to change from here on out. On to a situation that I will be using this weekend and have used quite often in the past with great success. Teams that enjoy a long period of success, winning multiple games over an extended period of time, usually run into trouble when they play on the road. In fact, teams who have won and covered at least three straight games and then go on the road are just 129-165-11 43.90% since 1983. If we make sure our play against road team isn’t coming off a bye week, they are just 116-155-10 42.80%. We can greatly improve our chances if we request they are going on the road against a winning team, which brings the record to 32-70-5 31.40%. If we add one last parameter, which is our play against team isn’t off any bye weeks at all during their current three game winning streak, the record falls to just 28-63-4 30.80%. Again, our simple situation is to simply play against any road team coming off of three straight wins and covers, if they weren’t on a bye week during that win streak and now facing a winning team. By playing against these road teams and on these winning home teams, you would have gone 63-28-4 69.20% since 1983. There is one play on the board this week, which is the Chicago Bears +2.5 While my NFL season has not lived up to the past three seasons, I fully expect the dogs to start barking, of which I normally play about 70% of my side plays. And, I am currently enjoying my best college season ever, going 37-18 67.30%, all of which is monitored by The Sports Monitor. If you would like to view my NFL analysis, where I analyze every NFL game on the board each week, simply go to SixthSenseSports.com this weekend anytime after 12:00 Central on Saturday and I will have the full analysis for free on my NFL PAGE. Best of luck to you this weekend.
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Guest Handicapper Notes | It's certainly unfair to try and judge a handicapper's style or ability by one game or one week's worth of predictions, and that is not the intention here. The goal of this column is to introduce readers to the wide variety of approaches used by notable NFL football forecasters. As the game evolves, so too does the need to explore what is working now. We can all benefit from a few pointers! -- The Free Guest Handicapper Picks combined for a record of 21-19 (53%) during the 2004 season
NFL '04 Guest Handicapper Archive:
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