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WEEK ENDING - NOVEMBER 28, 2005
Notre Dame (-17.0) at Stanford
Well folks, with my Clemson Tigers now finally "entrenched" in the College Bowl picture, its time to "get busy" with some "ordinary action" this weekend ... hope you have my "Upset Special" last weekend as I nailed Fresno State as a "spread winner" over USC .. damn .. they nearly won it outright! With nice successes this year on the West Coast, it is only appropriate that I return to my former "home town" of Palo Alto on Saturday to examine this "on-paper" mismatch between Notre Dame and Stanford .. could another Fresno State upset be in the making? Well to begin with ....let's not book those plane tickets to the Fiesta Bowl just yet Notre Dame fans. Stanford might have just gotten pasted 27-3 by Cal, but this is a dangerous team with enough weapons and enough potential on offense to hang punch for punch with the hot Irish. You have to like the attitude of the new Notre Dame. It blows out Syracuse 34-10 and is all ticked off that it didn't play well enough; that's why the team is going to the BCS. Or is it? Under first year head coach Walt Harris, Stanford showed it's good enough to hang around with almost everyone in the Pac 10, but beating the business-like Irish is a whole other story. A Cardinal win wouldn't just crush Notre Dame's big pay day, it would mean another game, most likely the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. The Irish already made a big trip to the left coast once this year, and it handled Washington without much of a problem. Cal beat Stanford with the ground game and solid defense, but Notre Dame should be able to bomb at will on the porous Cardinal secondary that's getting beaten every way possible. Granted, the Pac 10 offenses can roll up yards on anyone, but this isn't a physical enough Cardinal defense to handle the Irish front line once the running game gets going. It's not like Brady Quinn needs more help, but he'll get it with the Stanford safeties sure to be cheating up from time to time to slow down Darius Walker. On the "other hand," the Irish secondary isn't exactly stopping anyone, either. Notre Dame has played some "vertically passing challenged" teams lately like Tennessee, Navy and Syracuse, but it's still allowing an average of 249 passing yards per game. Fine, so the Vols, Midshipmen and Orange didn't throw well, but BYU, USC, Purdue, and even Washington chucked at will. Stanford has just enough at receiver to come up with a few big plays to stay with the Irish attack for a few drives, but ... will T.C. Ostrander be able to come up with the game of his life? With starting quarterback Trent Edwards likely out after being used as a tackling dummy by Cal, Ostrander will have to do more than just be a caretaker of the attack. He wasn't bad in relief against the Bears, but he wasn't able to generate any touchdown drives and couldn't get the Cardinal back in the game. If he doesn't throw for 300 and three touchdowns, Notre Dame will win in a walk. So .. the bottom line is that Notre Dame is a cold-hearted machine at the moment. Stanford simply doesn't have enough on defense to slow down Brady and the bunch from cranking out 40+ points. This is when the Irish make a statement .. no Fresno State here .. I'll TAKE THE IRISH by 20+ !!!
Ravens at Bengals (-9.0)
Marvin Lewis faces his old team for the second time this season, hoping his Bengals can produce a repeat of Week 9's 21-9 victory. Lewis was defensive coordinator for the Ravens' 2000 Super Bowl champions. . . . Lewis' defense looked very human last week, when the Colts had 451 yards and 45 points. No, the Ravens aren't the Colts. Lewis should expect a stronger performance this week. . . .
The Ravens did the Bengals a favor by beating the Steelers last week. But despite the win, the Ravens have little to play for except their jobs. And that goes for coach Brian Billick as well as his players. Despite upgrades to the coaching staff and at wide receiver with the signing of Derrick Mason the offense remains anemic, even by Ravens standards.
Quarterback Kyle Boler is back from a toe injury but doesn't bring much more than replacements Anthony Wright and Kordell Stewart did in his absence. The running game, which kept the offense afloat in recent seasons, is not strong. Running back Jamal Lewis isn't producing yards at expected levels, and backup Chester Taylor is getting more responsibility. Tight end Todd Heap is explosive, but the quarterback situation greatly limits his opportunities. . . .
With last week's loss to the Colts, the Bengals are tied with the Steelers atop the NFC North -- but Pittsburgh holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Pittsburgh plays the Colts in Indianapolis this week, so this could be an opportunity for the Bengals to regain sole possession of first place. Can they keep their focus on the Ravens?
Quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Chad Johnson form one of the NFL's most prolific pass combinations. Complementary wideouts TJ Houshmandzadeh (try to spell that name after drinking a few "Chilly Willies" ... or try to pronounce it after a six pack!) and Chris Henry make the passing attack even more potent. Rudi Johnson is featured when the Bengals go to a running attack. Backfield mate Chris Perry is a receiving weapon.
On defense, the opportunistic Bengals leads the NFL in takeaways, creating even more scoring chances for the offense. Well enough "rambling" .... back in Week 9 the Ravens' inability to run the football and control the clock led to their demise. The Bengals took a lead into the second half and then ran out the clock down the stretch. Unless the Ravens can run the ball and stop the run, we will see the same result .. I'll TAKE THE BENGALS by 12 or more ... even if it snows!
| RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS
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WEST VIRGINIA (-13) OVER PITTSBURGH
WISCONSIN (-6.0) OVER HAWAII
TEXAS A&M OVER TEXAS (-26.5)
FRESNO STATE (-15.0) OVER NEVADA
FALCONS (-3.0) OVER LIONS
VIKINGS (-4.0) OVER BROWNS
CHARGERS (-3.0) OVER REDSKINS
THE OVER (47.0) STEELERS AT COLTS
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| SPORTSMASTER STAN'S MONEY LINE PLAYS
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WEST VIRGINIA OVER PITTSBURGH
TEXAS OVER TEXAS A&M
VIRGINIA TECH OVER NORTH CAROLINA
LOUISVILLE OVER SYRACUSE
RAIDERS OVER DOLPHINS
PANTHERS OVER BILLS
BENGALS OVER RAVENS
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To visit Rick's Sports Site ... click here ... THE BETTER BETTOR
EMAIL Rick ... rneedham1@yahoo.com
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Guest Handicapper Notes
It's certainly unfair to try and judge a handicapper's style or ability by one game or one week's worth of predictions, and that is not the intention here.
The goal of this column is to introduce readers to the wide variety of approaches used by notable NFL football forecasters. As the game evolves, so too does the need to explore what is working now. We can all benefit from a few pointers!
-- The Free Guest Handicapper Picks combined for a record of 21-19 (53%) during the 2004 season
NFL '04 Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, I
Week 14: The Falcon, II
Week 15: The Falcon, III
Week 16: The Falcon, IV
Week 17: Big Al
NFL '05 Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 4: Stephen Nover
Week 5: Daniel Fabrizio
Week 5: Gene
Week 6: Wunderdog
Week 7: Dr. Bob
Week 8: Tim Trushel
Week 9: Reed Hogben
Week 10: Big Al
Week 11: Scott Kellen
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