Week 5: Dan Fabrizio
Founder of SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 5
10/6/2005 2:35PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you
ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook
side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace! Every Tuesday
and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at five leading offshore books about which games the public
is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first four weeks of
the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at
what’s in store for week 5 in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 5
NFL Week 4 Recap
As predicted NFL Week 4 saw significantly lower handle sizes
because of the previous three week losing streak by the public.
Steve Stone line manager at Oasis put it best, “you can’t bet
what you don’t have.” But after a dismal start, NFL Week 4 went
decidedly the public’s way. All books reported their first
losing NFL Sunday of the season. “Teasers really hammered us
this weekend,” noted Scott Kaminsky line manager at
“The late games on Sunday and Monday Night Football were the
worst possible outcomes…pretty much all teasers hit which means
a long day of payouts for the accounting staffs.”
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 70% of
the action on one side the public was a lackluster 2-2. Most of
the sportsbooks loses came because of teasers and games will
smaller decisions 60-70% range, the public was 5-0.* However,
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis posted it’s fourth
straight winning weekend going 2-1. Overall, that makes
NFL Week 5 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Look for handle sizes to bounce back this week. The public has a
little more money and a lot of confidence. This week is already
shaping up to have eight major decisions in contrast to last
week which only had four major decisions. Let’s see what NFL
Week 5 has in store.
Tampa Bay vs New York Jets
View Live Stats -
Early sharp money taking NYJ +3.5. “We opened at 3.5 and quickly
moved to 3 after taking some early sharp money on the dog,” said Scott
Bowmans. There is some uncertainty if Cadillac
Williams will play and be effective but the consensus feeling is that
public action will push this line back to 3.5.
Play on New York Jets +3.5
Miami vs Buffalo
View Live Stats -
Buffalo opened at -2.5. The oddsmakers couldn’t have made it any
clearer. They want the public to take Miami. Buffalo is coming off a bad
loss to the displaced Saints. Right now, this line looks too good to be
true. We tag this one as a trap game. As expect early public action is
predominantly coming in on Miami. A couple of books have opened at 3 and
stuck to it. “We feel 3 is the correct number and plan to stick to it,”
says Scott of Bowmans.
The overall analysis at SportsInsights.com is that this line will move
to 3 and stay there. We’re betting this game early Buffalo -2.5.
Play on Buffalo -2.5
Indianapolis vs San Francisco
View Live Stats -
Indianapolis is coming off an impressive trouncing of Tennessee and
looks to pounce on the hapless 49ers. Adding to the mix is the fact that
the 49ers will have a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.
“This will be one of the biggest decisions for the books,” says
5Dimes.com's line manager. “I think they could put 21 points on this
game and you’d still get action on the Colts. Just about every parlay
and teaser will include Indianapolis.”
As expected a lot of early public money has been put on Indianapolis.
The uncertainty around the San Francisco quarterback situation has also
attracted some sharp players. Oasis and Bowmans.com both report some
early sharp action on the Colts. The game opened at 14 and quickly moved
to 15. Let’s face it, you don’t see at 15 point home underdog in the NFL
that often. Wait to bet this game late, we anticipate the line to move
Scott Kaminsky of
Bowmans says bluntly, “you’d need balls of steel
to take San Francisco.” One the toughest things about Fading the Public
is that you continually have to bet on the worst teams. It goes against
basic instincts…but is exactly because of this bias that fading is
profitable. You’ll get an extra 1-2 points just because of the public
and media’s negative perceptions and biases. For this reason, San
Francisco is a great value play.
Play on San Fran +16
Carolina vs Arizona
View Live Stats -
Carolina continues to be a public favorite. Early public money is
pouring in on Carolina but early sharp action on the dog pushed this
line to 2.5. “We opened at 3 and saw a lot of early public money taking
Carolina 3, then ‘wham’ – a couple of our sharp players, sensing a real
value at 3, bet the line down t 2.5,” remarked 5Dimes.com line manager.
“Early sharp action moved us off 3 but I expect the flood of public
money to push this game back to 3 on Sunday,” reports
Bowmans. We’re following the sharp money and taking Arizona +3 at
Play on Arizona +3
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis of this week’s Games
to Watch for NFL Week 5.
Games to Watch (14-4)
New York Jets +3.5
San Fran +16
It should be another wild NFL Week 5. Keep Sports Marketplace picks
handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest
real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest lines directly from
the top online sportsbooks.
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