Week 5:
Gene
Founder of Gene's Pro Football Picks
From long experience, I’ve found winning is the result of following a few simple rules. Here are some of best.
1. Concentrate on a single sport. That way, when the season ends you’ll be able to take a break and then be objective in reviewing your decisions and approach. If you simply jump from sport to sport, you’re guaranteed to be nothing more than a frantic loser. The books will love you; but will you love yourself?
My sport is the NFL. When I bet on or recommend a team, I know what I’m doing. My decisions are based on records I’ve kept and reviewed since 1978. (That’s when the began its present 16 game season format.) With this approach, I still have losing weeks, but I have confidence that I’ll have a good season-long record.
2. Don’t bet because of a sudden "brainstorm" inspired by some factor you've noticed during the past few weeks that seems to predict winners. Break a sweat. Use all the data you can get, organize it, and see if your “brainstorm” holds up. We recommend spreadsheets (LOTUS or EXCEL) for this sort of work. Then let the data tell you when to bet.
For example, you may notice, early one year, that 4 out of 5 Home Dogs getting +10 or more points have covered the spread. Such observation should only be considered as a start. When you analyze all available cases of Home Dogs+10 or more, you may find that this year’s 4 out of 5 was just a random occurrence. Such Dogs may only win 53% of the time. Nothing to bet on there.
But, once you have the data, it’s good to look deeper. Further analysis may show these Dogs cover 58% of the time in the final 6 weeks of the season and that, in that period, they win 62% of the time if they get +12 or more. Each time you add a descriptive factor, of course, the number of cases you’re left with decreases. That’s why you need a large database for this sort of work. But if you end your analysis with a substantial number of cases (we like to have 100 or more that fit our final definition) and a 62% win record, you’re close to having a usable betting pattern.
If you have enough cases left, you may find that one more “data cut” might get you over 64% (we require that as a minimum win %) there. Maybe you find that dropping the final week of the season (when lousy teams might be more likely to just quit), gives you a usable “pattern” - - at least 100 cases with better than a 64% win record. Those are the kind we use!
This week we have two teams we like a lot. Pattern factors and records are as shown.
SAN DIEGO -3 (vs. Pittsburgh) Two of our best patterns pick the Chargers. Basically, when two strong teams meet, they like Home Teams not giving too many points. Pattern Records (since ’78): (A) 122 Ws in 183 games = 66.7%, and (B) 114 Ws in 168 games = 67.9%.
Washington +7 (at Denver) The pattern picking the Redskins is based on the records of Visiting Dogs after they have won and covered as favorites the previous week (plus a few other modifying factors). Record: 83 Ws in 119 games = 69.7% (since ’78.)
We also have a few “optional plays”, but we won’t recommend them here. Too iffy. As a guest columnist, I’ll only show you my best for the week.
Oh yes, don’t forget to have that one essential: GOOD LUCK!
Gene
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