Week 6: Wunderdog
The Wunderdog has hit 65% winners so far this NFL season - his best start ever as he's won 7 out of 9 weeks dating back to the preseason. The Wunderdog, as you can guess from his name, specializes in picking underdogs. Here's his philosophy on why dogs are the way to go in the NFL. And, at the end, his pick for this week.
Six
Reasons Why Underdogs Are the Smart Bet in the NFL
Underdog
or favorite? It's a choice we make 16 times per week
during
the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites
warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting
underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here
are six reasons why you should pay special attention
the dogs this NFL season.
1.
NFL Parity
The
NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among
teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams
from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore
in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina
last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it
that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records
the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team
can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to
boot?
2.
A Win is a Win
Again,
unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team.
Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score
in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases,
coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or
risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often
dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.
3.
The Rodney Dangerfield Effect
Underdogs
don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public,
sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More
importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good
teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if
players and coaches minds are on other things, like next
week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding
of historical trends can reveal great situations in which
underdogs are poised for an upset.
4.
The Public Can't Help Itself
The
average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes
pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the
90's
with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week,
with the right research, you can spot teams that should
be favorites but are getting points against a popular
team
that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect." For
example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week
10. The Chiefs had won nine straight
and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the
easy underdog pick. Kansas City 's defense was ranked 25
th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll
having
won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming
into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing
to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew
they could beat. However, the public couldn't get over
Kansas
City 's success and spot this situation.
5.
Got Courage?
Most
bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs.
They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad
team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed
an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a
recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with
the right combination of statistical and situational research,
some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are
also certain situations in which bad teams have historically
and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with
a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform
and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.
6.
The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think
Historically,
the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the
time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers
the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs
that you really like (based on the right research, not a
hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line),
collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet.
Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for
a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular
spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250
for 100 for a straight-up win.
What
It All Means
Obviously
just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would
yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account
balance). However, with the right research, you can spot
some very high-value underdog winners each week.
2005 Week 6: NY Giants
+3.5 over DALLAS (1:00 Eastern)
Dallas is coming off a dismantling of the mighty Philadelphia Eagles. They are a solid team, for sure. But, my oh my - our memories are short. The decisive win over the Eagles seems to have made folks forget that the three prior weeks, the 'Boys lost to Oakland, almost (should have) lost to San Francisco, and lost to the Redskins. The last two weeks, they have played Parcells ball, not turning it over at all. This has helped them perform well. But, on Sunday, the Cowboys are going to get a stiff test from the G-Men and the top offense in the league. New York is putting up 34 points per game and haven't scored fewer than 23 this season. Eli is looking like Peyton, Shockey is back in his rookie form and Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress round out a frightening attack. New York has really have had just one bad game - against the Chargers. But, that was a tough spot for them as San Diego was a cornered animal fighting for a must-have win at home under the Sunday night national spotlight. And, we have subsequently learned how good the Chargers really are. Outside of that one game, the Giants have won by an average score of 38 to 18! It's no wonder that my supercomputer simulation in this one predicts an outright New York win. The computer utilizes primarily statistics which is a key handicapping component. But, what about situation/motivation? New York is coming in well rested while Dallas is off an emotional game and will likely be without the services of Julius Jones. I've got a 20-0 trend that applies in this one. It involves underdogs playing against a team off a big dominating win. This year it has surfaced 2 times and is perfect. In week 3, Tampa was coming off a 19-3 win over Buffalo and won by just one point against Green Bay as a 3.5 point favorite. Also in week 3, Philadelphia came off a 42-3 shellacking of San Francisco. They were 8.5 point favorites against Oakland but only won by 3 points. I expect a similar letdown here for Dallas. We get over a field goal on the better team in a good situation. Take the Giants plus the points here.
The Wunderdog publishes a free email newsletter and you can get one of his free picks every week. To sign-up, visit the Wunderdog site here and sign-up for his free newsletter.
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