Week 7:
Winning football games has always been about winning the battle at the line of scrimmage and that still holds true even in today’s more pass-oriented offensive systems. It’s pretty obvious that teams that run the ball well and defend the run well have an advantage in winning games, but I wanted to check to see if such teams had an advantage against the pointspread. I decided to check out the pointspread results of teams that run the ball for 4.00 yards per rush or higher and allow less than 4.00 ypr and the results were even better than I had anticipated for such a simple concept. Teams that average 4.00 or more offensive yards per rush and allow 4.00 or less ypr on defense are a profitable 677-576-42 ATS from week 5 on since 1989. Road teams are just 324-314-23 ATS, so I concentrated the rest of my research on home teams, which are 353-262-19 ATS, for 57.4% - an astonishing success rate for such a simple system with over 600 occurances. But, the real profit is getting undervalued teams with such profitable statistical characteristics, so I checked the results at different pointspread ranges and found that favorites of more than 4 points are just 154-141-5 ATS, which leaves us with the following great statistical profile indicator.
Home teams at -4 or better (Favorite of 4 or less, pick, or underdog), that rush for 4.00 ypr or more and allow less than 4.00 ypr are a very profitable 199-121-14 ATS (62.2%) from week 5 on since 1989.
There are 4 such teams this week – Miami, Seattle, Chicago, and the NY Giants and Seattle qualifies in an even more profitable 59-15-4 ATS subset of that angle and is my top NFL Best Bet this week.
Best Bet: Seattle
This is just one of many fundamental indicators that I use to help me handicap the NFL each week, and like the folks at twominutewarning.com, my analysis is based on time tested theories and sound mathematical models.
I post analysis on every College and NFL game each week (I do withhold my Best Bets for a small fee, however) and I'm an incredibly hot 25-8-1 on my College Best Bets heading into this week, with 7 consecutive winning weeks. My NFL analysis hasn't been as good as usual so far (just 50%), but that will come around and I expect to have a winning season in the NFL too.
For Free analysis on about 80% of the games each week, and access to my Best Bets, you can visit my site at
www.drbobsports.com each Thursday.
Good luck this week,
Dr. Bob
drbobsports.com
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