Week 8:
Tim Trushel
SportsMemo.com
Another Weapon in the Sports Betting Marketplace
Back in 1995 around the time of the Super Bowl I remember listing to a local Las Vegas Sports Talk radio one afternoon and being absolutely mesmerized by the show. The host was going over a seemingly endless listing of the different wagering opportunities for the upcoming Super Bowl between San Diego and San Francisco. The game was expected to be a blowout as the 49ers were favored by more than 17-points. However the topic of the show wasn't about the pointspread or which team was going to cover, but rather what individual players were going to be able to do.
There were offerings on this game that set a line on individual or team passing yards, rushing attempts, turnovers, penalties and virtually any other possible statistical category. As I listened to the show and heard discussions and opinions about the total of passing yardage by Steve Young or the receptions by Jerry Rice, I knew these "Proposition Wagers" had to present some incredible opportunities. After all there were literally hundreds of these available "Props" and I was certain that with some effort I'd be able to uncover some winnable bets.
As the game drew near I really didn't think there was much of an opportunity to play the game itself. I am not to fond of laying -17 points in an NFL game, but I did expect the 49ers to have little trouble moving the ball and scoring. In the regular season, San Francisco had won ten straight and had scored 30 or more 10 times. They has posted more than 40, five different times. This offense was unstoppable. Yet to win a game by more than three scores against the second best team in the league seemed like a stretch. So rather than bet on the game I looked for opportunities to back success by the individual 49ers players and desperation or failure by the Chargers.
The 49ers dominated and the Chargers had to sling the ball all over the place in desperation. The game went as expected with a San Francisco 49-26 victory. While the game wasn't all that competitive it was exciting right until the last play as I was rooting for individual players and events even with the game completely in hand.
When the game was complete I had won 17 of the 21 different prop bets that I made and I was hooked. The only problem was that prop bets were only available for the Super Bowl. I would have to wait another year for the opportunity of profits and fun with prop betting.
The following week I was again listing to that same sports talk show that has peaked my interest into prop wagers when I heard something that I thought at the time was just downright crazy. The host predicted that some day in the not to distant future, proposition wagering would not only be available for the Super Bowl, but for all games.
He was right. In today's market there are literally proposition wagers on nearly every event. Whether it's NASCAR, baseball or the NBA, there are individual player and team prop bets offered on nearly every game or event. Still the widest offerings come from the ranks of the King of all Sports, the NFL.
Football proposition wagers can be consistently beaten. In fact I know of one sophisticated bettor that wagers on nothing but NFL proposition wagers. He works five months a year from September to January on nothing else other than NFL props. THAT is all he does.
The reason for the success is simple. Compared to a regular season NFL game where one might be lucky find a 1-point variance around a less than key number, prop wagers will often have significant variance between numbers offered on the same prop. The market is less mature and much more fluid and unsettled with prop wagers. Because of this there are often more inefficiencies in the market.
In a very competitive marketplace, Sportsbooks are striving to offer more and more betting opportunities. In their efforts to do this they also have added opportunities upon which the savvy bettor can capitalize. Making lines for 16 NFL and 55 NCAA Games every week can be a daunting task. When we add hundreds upon hundreds of prop bets as well, there are bound to be some opportunities.
There are really five key strategies or components to beating prop wagers.
1. Practice your math.
To be successful in all sports wagering one must have a solid grasp of probabilities. This is especially true when it comes to prop wagering. Look for events that are significantly less or more likely to happen than the odds indicate. Last year in the Super Bowl their was a prop on the amount of onside kicks attempted. The line was set at 1.5 with a money line of -140. If one had bet the under, there would have to be two onside kicks attempted to lose this wager. How many games have two onside kicks attempted? Not surprisingly this line closed at 1.5 -500 and all that wagered on the under were rewarded with a win.
2. Don't average season long numbers.
Many props on individual players will be set with a strong emphasis on season long averages. Offenses and player roles change over the season and props can be exploited if you take note of these changes before the sportsbook. Weigh current numbers with greater emphasis.
3. Look for information.
Keep up with information. Injuries information can give you a huge advantage in prop wagering. Most everyone takes note of Offensive Superstar injuries, but you can gain an edge keeping up with injuries on the line or to a secondary that may effect the gameplan.
4. Consider the flow of the game and the matchups.
This is the greatest mistake by novice prop players. Most bettors understand that teams with big leads, run the ball and play much more conservative on offense. Teams playing from behind will eschew the run for the pass and play much more reckless and aggressive. One must consider the game plan and the expected outcome to get an edge with some individual props pertaining to rushing and passing yardage.
Proposition wagering can be another tool in your sports betting arsenal. They can also be very fun and entertaining much like fantasy sports. Each snap, every pass or run can be connected to the outcome of your prop bet. Sometimes you'll find yourself rooting for passes instead running plays. But just like fantasy sports you might want the passes to go to Reggie Wayne instead of Marvin Harrison. Regardless you'll likely have fun and make profits this football season by including prop wagers into your overall game plan.
Tim Trushel is the CEO of Sports Memorandum, Inc. and the host of the Sports Memo Radio Show. Every day for the past seven years Tim has been heard on the Vegas radio dial talking sports from a betting perspective. Visit his site at SportsMemo.com
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