Week 9:
Reed Hogben M.D.
TheBettingDoctor.com
Keep to the Code
In my book "The Betting Doctor", I say that every sports bet should be
viewed as an investment in the "Three-Hour Tour". About three hours
after your game, if you made your bet at the standard odds of -110, your
"investment" will either be up 91% or down 100%. The key to winning
long-term is to make good investments. The 91% question is how to do it.
As you may know, I used to be a full-time Family Physician. I am now full-time
"betting doctor" and only part-time real doctor. However, my roughly
25 years in medicine has given me a great appreciation for the uniqueness of
every patient. I bring this appreciation to my handicapping. Every sporting
event is a unique, once-in-eternity happening that will never be repeated. It
is this principle that makes it possible for sports betting to be profitable.
Unlike the fixed mathematical odds of casino games, it is impossible to
determine what the exact odds on something like a football game should be.
Sports
betting occurs in a market. Just like at the supermarket, every weekend the
linesmaker puts every team out on his shelf with a price. He sets his price in
hopes that his "customers", as a whole, will buy "enough"
of each team in any given match up. As a broker, he keeps a 9% ($10 of every 110)
commission when he pays his winning customers. Note that he does not set his
price to what he thinks each team is worth, but to what he thinks his customers
think they're worth. Sometimes most of his customers are wrong. There is a
discrepancy between the perceived and actual worth of the two teams in
question. One of them is out on the shelf at a bargain. This means we have a
good sports betting investment.
- First, you try
looking at a whole bunch of Statistics. Two problems. To be of any use to
a bettor, a stat must predict point spread success; many popular ones do
not. Secondly, stats are usually averages of a variety of results that
fluctuate from week-to-week. Teams rarely give an average performance
every week. A fresh example was made by those who bet against the Giants
last week.
- They forgot about
Motivation. The unique circumstances set up by the death of owner Mara
made them "worth" much more than their small price of -1 or 2
and stats alone would not have told you so.
There
is no point in wasting time looking at stats when a prior look at motivation reveals
you could throw them out the window. But if motivations are equal, stats can be
very important.
The
other critical factor to know aside from what a team is really worth to you is
to determine what they ought to be worth to everyone else. This requires
"playing bookie". Pretend you own a sportsbook in Costa Rica, what price would you put on the teams? Before you
enter the supermarket (i.e. look at the lines) you have to have these two
prices in mind. The price you would be willing to pay and the price that would
be "Fair" for everyone else. When you find a game where the price on
your team is low and yet still fair, you've found a good investment.
Keep to the Code
You may recognize these words as those of Captain
Jack Sparrow from the movie “Pirates of the Caribbean. With the added
proviso of Captain Barbosa that “the code is not so much actual rules, but more
like guidelines”; here is my Sports Investor’s Code for the NFL:
- Based on Motivational analysis, I am certain beyond a reasonable
doubt that the team I am betting will bring its “A” game.
- The line is Fair with respect to the team I am betting.
- The team I am betting has a distinct motivational advantage over
its opponent that makes the line Inaccurate AND it’s not cancelled out by
a statistical disadvantage.
OR
- The team I am betting has a distinct statistical advantage over its
opponent that makes the line Inaccurate AND it’s not cancelled out by a
motivational disadvantage.
With the "Code" in mind, let's look at three games for this weekend:
Game 1:
Motivations: The visiting team is off a home win in
which they were out-yarded by their injury-decimated opponents but won largely
because of a +4 turnover advantage. Going in to their bye week, they lead their
division by half a game, but have a 1-2 SU record against winning teams. The
home team has been disappointing so far, but played their best game last week.
If they lose this game it will be very difficult to make the playoffs.
Statistics: The visiting team has an excellent WR;
modesty is not one of his faults. On the other hand, the home team ranks in the
top 10 in TwoMinuteWarning's cornerback ratings. The home team's offense is
primarily power running. The visitors have allowed at least 100 yards rushing
in 5 of the last 6 games. A statistically- based Point Spread Power Rating
(PSPR) system I have perfected makes the home team a 5 ½ point favorite.
My Price: Based on motivational and statistical
advantages I think the home team should be at least a 3 point favorite and will
probably win this game.
Fair Price: If I was a bookie, because of their SU
records, I would make the visitor's -3.
Inside the supermarket it is: Cincinnati -3 @ Baltimore. This price is Fair,
but in my opinion, it is wrong. Play on Baltimore. In my opinion, this
bet should be made on the money line. At the "outs" I frequent, it is
> +130. For every $110 you lay you win at least $143 instead of $100. Our
point is not just to win, but to win money. The odds of Cincy winning by 3 or
less are too small to warrant the cost of the point spread
"insurance" on the Ravens.
Game 2:
Motivations: The visiting team racked up 11 first
downs last week; their total offense was 40 yards greater than their return
yardage. They achieved a significant goal by winning the game! The home team
came off a bye and was a popular road favorite; as has been their problem in
the past, they played to the level of their opposition, gave up some big plays
and lost. These two play in the same division and the visitors won both last
year by a combined 41-6 score.
Statistics: My PSPR's make the home team -11 ½. The
visitors have one good WR and he is questionable; they have barely averaged 100
yards passing per game and lead the league in sacks allowed. The strength of
the home team is their defense and a solid RB, although their new passing game
is becoming more efficient.
My Price: With the visitors off their goal of a win
and the superior home team off a poorly-played loss, I would pay up to 2 TD's.
Because of last week's and last year's results, the home team will not let up
if (when) they get ahead.
Fair Price: Because the public knows the visitors
are bad, I would make a double-digit line to attract some action on them.
Inside the supermarket it is: Houston +13 @ Jacksonville. Play on Jacksonville. Some
bettors will look at this spread and be scared off by the points, or even think
of betting the Texans. This is usually a mistake. It is a truism in the NFL
that the team that scores the most points covers. Last week was fairly typical
as the following dogs won SU, Chicago, Miami, St. Louis and even lowly San Francisco; Baltimore and Buffalo were narrow misses.
Both Carolina and Dallas easily covered hefty
spreads. If I am convinced that a favorite is going to win, I don't worry too
much about the price (as long as it is still fair).
Game 3:
Motivations: The visiting team moved above .500,
remained undefeated in their division and with tie-breakers now has a two game
lead; their rookie QB played his best game yet. They could have a letdown. Their
opponent lost it's 4th in a row and the Head Coach is threatening
cuts and some players apologized to the fans. This is their second
"home" game in a row. They might be primed for a big effort.
Statistics: My PSPR's make the visitors an 8 point
favorite. They have a great D, but their O can be iffy. Their QB might come
back to earth. The home team is hard to figure. Their QB has flashes of brilliance,
but is very inconsistent. They chronically under-achieve until the pressure is
off and then play well when it doesn't matter.
My Price: As you can see, I don't like either team.
I'd consider the visitors at a pick or the home team +7. I know neither price
is very likely.
Fair Price: The public knows of the visitor's
offensive limitations, so I would make the home team only +3.
Inside the supermarket it is: Chicago -3 @ New Orleans (in Baton Rouge). Motivations and Stats
are at odds. Follow the "Code" and pass this game. Probably the worst
thing a handicapper can do is to bet a game like this and win. In the long run
it is very dangerous to be rewarded for a bad investment.
Reed Hogben M.D. is the "Betting Doctor" and operates the TheBettingDoctor.com web site.
He has also written a handicapping boook, similarly named "The Betting Doctor" that we will be reviewing shortly.
What do you think? Make your opinion known on the Message Boards
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Guest Handicapper Notes
It's certainly unfair to try and judge a handicapper's style or ability by one game or one week's worth of predictions, and that is not the intention here.
The goal of this column is to introduce readers to the wide variety of approaches used by notable NFL football forecasters. As the game evolves, so too does the need to explore what is working now. We can all benefit from a few pointers!
-- The Free Guest Handicapper Picks combined for a record of 21-19 (53%) during the 2004 season
NFL '04 Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, part I
Week 14: The Falcon, part II
Week 15: The Falcon, part III
Week 16: The Falcon, part IV
Week 17: Big Al
NFL '05 Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 4: Stephen Nover
Week 5: Daniel Fabrizio
Week 5: Gene
Week 6: Wunderdog
Week 7: Dr. Bob
Week 8: Tim Trushel
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