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Of course, public perception is also a huge factor in what line the oddsmakers post in week 1 and there are spots in which we can take advantage of that. Public perception early in the season is most often based on how teams performed the previous year and there are ways to take advantage of that by taking a contrary approach. I have researched opening game spread results based on last season’s regular season victory totals and have found that teams that were good the previous season tend to live up to expectations when opening the season at home and fail when they open up as a visitor.

Since 1985, home teams that won 9 or more regular season games the previous season are a very profitable 69-44-4 ATS in week 1, including 65-38-4 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points. Remember, just because such teams are 63% ATS in the past 19 years does not mean that they will win at that percentage in the future. I have done research on the predictability of situational angles and I estimate that 65-38-4 ATS angle to have a 54.5% chance of covering in the future – so it’s certainly not enough to base a big bet on. This year’s qualifying teams are New England, Miami, St. Louis if favored by 10 or less, Philadelphia if favored by 10 or less, Minnesota, Denver, and Carolina.

Teams that were good the previous year tend to really have problems when opening up away from home, as they tend to run into a host team that will be playing with a lot of emotion giving the stature of their visiting foe. Teams that won 11 or more regular season games the previous season are just 11-31-1 ATS in game 1 road games if they are not an underdog of at least 3 points (a dog of less than 3, a pick, or favored – which is also the same as saying they are considered to be the better team since the standard home field advantage in the NFL is 3 points). This year’s only qualifying team is Tennessee (a play on Miami) based on current lines and that would certainly be a contrary play. Other possible play against teams are Indianapolis and Kansas City if they are not getting 3 points or more.

Last Year Record and Pre-Season Results as Game 1 Indicator
I’ve often wondered how pre-season results factor into a team’s success early in the season, and especially in week 1, and that curiosity was peeked with both Carolina and New England turning perfect pre-season records last season Super Bowl appearances. I recently finished a study of week 1 spread results based on the previous year’s record and the current year’s pre-season results and the results were very interesting, and potentially profitable.

I found that there is a correlation between pre-season results and early season performance, but that correlation is also tied in with how many games a team won the previous season, which serves as a good reference point. It is one thing for a team that was 12-4 last season to go 3-1 in the pre-season, but it’s certainly more meaningful when a 4-12 team goes 3-1 in their exhibition games. I’ll focus this report on week 1 only, which was the most significant in my early season study. Since 1991, teams that won 75% or more of their pre-season games are a profitable 62-46-2 ATS, but teams laying more than 7 points didn’t do as well and teams that were 12-4 or better the previous regular season also didn’t perform as well after a 3-plus win pre-season. But, teams that won 75% or more of their pre-season games and won 11 or fewer regular season games the previous year have been 56-29-2 ATS in season opening games in which they were not favored by more than 7 points (24-9 ATS at home and 32-20-2 ATS on the road), including 24-8-1 ATS the last 4 seasons. This season there are 7 such teams that qualify, with three are home teams - NY Jets, Carolina and Cleveland – but the Browns face a Baltimore team that also won 3 pre-season games. The road teams that qualify are Baltimore, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Dallas. My trend analysis gives that angle a 55.3% chance of covering in the future for home teams and just 53.8% for road teams, but those percentages are still profitable.

The results weren’t quite as significant for teams that won 1 or fewer pre-season games, as those teams are just barely below .500 at 57-63-4 ATS, but they are 27-39-3 ATS if not getting more than 3 points – including 16-30-3 ATS if they won 7 or more games the previous season. Once again, it’s really not saying much when a bad team from last season performed poorly in the pre-season, but it may mean something when a decent or good team performs poorly in the exhibitions. Home teams were a not so bad 11-13-3 ATS in those games, but road teams have been just 5-17 ATS and Kansas City and Green Bay fall into that negative category if they remain a 3 point underdog or less. That 17-5 ATS angle has a profitable 55.5% chance of working in the future, so I’d be careful going with either Kansas City or Green Bay.

There are, of course, many factors that go into handicapping a football game, but there aren’t as many in week 1 since we have no same-season performances, statistics or situational indicators to work with. It’s always best to use caution on opening week, but the preceding information will hopefully help you make the proper decisions this week.

For my final analysis on every NFL and College football game every week, check out my web-site at DrBobSports.com each Thursday or later.

Here is my Monday Night Best Bet Analysis:

Monday, September 13
CAROLINA (-3) 28 Green Bay 17
The Panthers were no fluke last season, as they have a well-balanced and effective offense to go along with a solid defense and good special teams play. Carolina is in a good spot to open defense of their NFC title against a Green Bay team that will miss holdout star CB Mike McKenzie and possibly their most dangerous receiver, Jevon Walker (716 yards at 17.5 ypc last year - listed as questionable with a quad injury). Green Bay’s offense would still be better than average without Walker, as Ahman Green should continue to put up good ground numbers (although probably not as good as last season’s 1883 yards at 5.3 ypr – he’s averaged 4.7 ypr for his career) while Brett Favre will continue to be Brett Favre (6.5 yards per pass play last season and 6.3 yppp in his career – NFL average is 5.9 yppp). Carolina’s defense is likely to slow down the Packers’ attack a bit with a dominating, and improving, front line that should defend the run even better than they did last season (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that combined to average 4.1 ypr on offense). The strong front seven also helps a questionable secondary by putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the Panthers yielded just 5.4 yppp last season (to teams that combined to average 5.8 yppp on offense). Carolina lost 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs, but emerging star CB Ricky Manning will fill in nicely after coming of age in the latter stages of his rookie season with 4 interceptions and 8 passes defended in 4 post-season games. Filling the other cornerback spot and replacing FS Deon Grant won’t be as easy, so I expect the Panthers’ pass defense to regress a bit this season – although I still rate it as a bit better than average. The Panthers were 0.27 yards per play better than an average defense last season (4.76 yards per play allowed to teams that averaged 5.03 yppl on offense) and I rate them at 0.19 yppl better than average this season. You may find it surprising that Carolina’s offense was actually just as good as their defense in 2003, as the Panthers averaged a healthy 5.4 yppl on offense with Jake Delhomme at quarterback (against teams that allowed 5.1 yppl on defense) and should be just as good this season despite replacing 3 offensive line starters (they upgraded talent, but lost experience and perhaps some continuity). The Packers’ defense is just about as good as Carolina’s offense, as the Pack yielded 4.9 yppl last season (to teams that averaged a combined 5.1 yppl on offense) and return all of their key personnel – with the current exception of holdout CB Mike McKenzie. McKenzie is Green Bay’s best defensive back after picking off 4 balls and breaking up 18 passes last season, so he will certainly be missed and I rate Packers’ stop unit as just a bit better than average without him. Overall, my ratings favor Carolina by 4 points in this game (4 ½ if Walker doesn’t play for Green Bay), and the Panthers qualify in a solid 56-29-2 ATS week 1 situation while Green Bay qualifies in a negative 5-17 ATS week 1 angle if they remain a dog of 3 points or less. Good teams generally come through at home on opening day (or night, in this case), as teams that had winning records the previous year are 39-19-3 ATS at home in week 1 if they are not favored by more than 5 points. Overall, the angles give Carolina a 58.2% chance of winning and the little bit of line value added in makes the Panthers a 59% play at the current line of -3 points (58% at -4) – which is certainly good enough to make Carolina a Best Bet at -4 points or less.

Good luck,
Dr. Bob
Drbobsports.com