Guest Analysis
- Updated every Thursday by 3pm Pacific Time -
If you are not seeing the current week after that time, your browser is loading a cached page.
We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
A preview of things to come?
One of the great things about what has happened with TwoMinuteWarning over the years is that subscibers and non-subscribers alike come to the site and contribute their own ideas for new approaches to handicapping the NFL. Many of these suggestions have led to improvements and even in certain cases, regular features on the site. This week our guest handicapper is a subscriber electing to go by the name of "The Falcon" who has been working on a project to adapt conventions in horse racing to an analagous pro football prediction scheme.
The Falcon
Play the ponies? I do.
Heard of Andy Beyer? He's only the demigod of horse racing speed figures. Followed by Len Ragozin and a string of imitators.
One of Andy's famous quotes is that Speed Figures are for horse race predictions "the truth, the way, and the light."
Another famous quote is that "The race doesn't always go to the swiftest, or the fight to
the strongest, but that's the way to bet!"
My goal is simple, to create "Speed Figures for the NFL."
I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game. I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form. I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, horse for course, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.
I'm working on it. I'm not there yet, but I'm working on it.
Here is kind of what I have in mind:
Carolina at New Orleans (-1.5)
| Week |
Team |
Opponent |
Spread |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 5 |
Carolina |
at Denver |
+5.5 |
17 |
20 |
97.2 |
106.5 |
97 |
107 |
| 6 |
Carolina |
at Philadelphia |
+8.5 |
8 |
30 |
96.8 |
115.8 |
116 |
97 |
| 7 |
Carolina |
San Diego |
-3.0 |
6 |
17 |
93.3 |
104.3 |
107 |
90 |
| 8 |
Carolina |
at Seattle |
+8.0 |
17 |
23 |
92.3 |
104.5 |
95 |
102 |
| 9 |
Carolina |
Oakland |
-6.5 |
24 |
27 |
92.0 |
89.1 |
98 |
83 |
| 10 |
Carolina |
at San Francisco |
+1.0 |
37 |
27 |
92.4 |
88.2 |
79 |
101 |
| 11 |
Carolina |
Arizona |
-3.0 |
35 |
10 |
94.9 |
100.2 |
73 |
122 |
| 12 |
Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
+2.5 |
21 |
14 |
98.4 |
100.8 |
94 |
105 |
| Week |
Team |
Opponent |
Spread |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 4 |
New Orleans |
at Arizona |
-3.5 |
10 |
34 |
97.8 |
93.0 |
119 |
72 |
| 5 |
New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
-3.0 |
17 |
20 |
92.0 |
93.7 |
98 |
88 |
| 6 |
New Orleans |
Minnesota |
+3.5 |
31 |
38 |
93.4 |
103.9 |
103 |
94 |
| 7 |
New Orleans |
at Oakland |
+3.0 |
31 |
26 |
92.6 |
91.0 |
85 |
99 |
| 9 |
New Orleans |
at San Diego |
+6.0 |
17 |
43 |
93.7 |
108.9 |
117 |
86 |
| 10 |
New Orleans |
Kansas City |
+4.0 |
27 |
20 |
90.6 |
105.2 |
87 |
109 |
| 11 |
New Orleans |
Denver |
+4.0 |
13 |
34 |
92.6 |
106.4 |
117 |
82 |
| 12 |
New Orleans |
at Atlanta |
+9.5 |
21 |
24 |
91.8 |
99.0 |
92 |
99 |
This is how I want to handicap. In the last eight games Carolina has posted 100+ Speed Figures FIVE times. New Orleans has posted a 100+ fig only ONCE. Also the Panthers seem to be on the upswing with three straight hundred or better games. [I should mention that 100 is the league average performance. So a 100 figure is a league average, 8-8 team effort.]
Carolina only has one stinker (the game against Oakland.) New Orleans has FOUR stinkers. Half the games shown on the PP's.
What else is interesting? Carolina hasn't played any real strong teams in the last four games, after having four straight against high flying teams before that (look at the Opp.Pwr column which means Opponent Power Rating entering the game).
Carolina's road average Fig is 101.8 but New Orleans' average home Fig is only 93.3
When New Orleans has played below average teams (<100 power rating) they are 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread with an average Fig of 89.5, when Carolina has played below average teams they are 1-1 with an average Fig of 87.
Every other game New Orleans gives up a monster Fig to its opponents (look at Opp.Fig)
There are all kinds of directions to go from here. Looking for bounces, looking for "teams for course" by adding in field surface columns into the PP, weather, etc. etc.
I don't have all the answers now, but just wait until next season!
(If you can't wait, bet Carolina +1.5.)
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
|
