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The Falcon, part II

Play the ponies? I do.

Heard of Andy Beyer? He's only the demigod of horse racing speed figures. Followed by Len Ragozin and a string of imitators.

One of Andy's famous quotes is that Speed Figures are for horse race predictions "the truth, the way, and the light."

Another famous quote is that "The race doesn't always go to the swiftest, or the fight to the strongest, but that's the way to bet!"

My goal is simple, to create "Speed Figures for the NFL."

I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game. I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form. I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, horse for course, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.

I'm working on it. I'm not there yet, but I'm working on it.

Here is kind of what I have in mind:

Falcon PP's: Tampa Bay at San Diego (-5.5 )

The '2Win' ratings show the figure a team needs to achieve
in order to cover against the posted spread for the game.

Tampa Bay

Week	Opp	Line	For	Agn	TeamPwr	Opp.Pwr	Opp.Fig	TeamFig
13	ATL	-1.5	27	0	100.5	99.8	76	123
12	@CAR	-2.5	14	21	100.8	98.4	104	94
11	SF	-8	35	3	97.7	88.2	68	117
10	@ATL	+3.5	14	24	98.8	97.2	105	90
9	KC	+3	34	31	98.0	106.6	98	106
7	CHI	-6	19	7	95.3	97.0	86	106
6	@STL	+6.5	21	28	94.4	101.4	98	97
5	@NO	+3	20	17	93.7	92.0	87	98
		-0.3	23	16	97.4	97.6	90	104

Away Ave. Fig = 95
Home Ave. Fig = 113

San Diego

Week	Opp	Line	For	Agn	TeamPwr	Opp.Pwr	Opp.Fig	TeamFig
13	DEN	-2.5	20	17	110.9	105.5	110	105
12	@KC	+2.5	34	31	111.4	102.3	105	108
11	@OAK	-4	23	17	111.7	90.6	102	99
9	NO	-6	43	17	108.9	93.7	85	116
8	OAK	-5.5	42	14	105.5	92.3	80	117
7	@CAR	+3	17	6	104.3	93.3	90	107
6	@ATL	+5.5	20	21	106.0	104.5	104	106
5	JAC	+3	34	21	103.6	98.2	93	108
		-0.5	29	18	107.8	97.5	96	108

Away Ave. Fig = 105
Home Ave. Fig = 111

This is how I want to handicap.

Tampa's been hot at home, rolling 123, 117, 106, 106 figs over the last four. But check out the road numbers: 94, 90, 97, 98! San Diego has been awesome where ever the game is played.

Both teams have had soft schedules, but TB has kept opponents in check, allowing only two 100+ Figs to opponents in the last eight games. Chargers have allowed three straight 100+ numbers which may not be a good sign.

Tampa has been on an "every other week" pattern (note the back to back 106 Figs came with a bye week in between!)

When Tampa has played above average teams (>100 power rating) they are 1-1 straight up and 1-1 against the spread with an average Fig of 101.5, and when San Diego has played above average teams they are 2-1 and 3-0 against the spread with an average Fig of 107.

Ultimately the home/away split is too great to ignore for me. A 95 average for Tampa versus a 111 average for San Diego.

There are all kinds of directions to go from here. Looking for bounces, looking for "teams for course" by adding in field surface columns into the PP, weather, etc. etc.

I don't have all the answers now, but just wait until next season!

(If you can't wait, bet San Diego -5.5.)

Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, part I