Guest Analysis
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We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
Due to popular demand, we are bringing back "The Falcon" for a third appearance.
The Falcon, part III
I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game.
I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form.
I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, horse for course, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.
I'm working on it. I'm not there yet, but I'm working on it.
Here is kind of what I have in mind:
Falcon PP's: Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5 )
| Week |
Away |
Current
Pwr |
Home |
Current
Pwr |
Away
2Win |
Home
2Win |
| 15 |
CAR |
101.3 |
ATL |
98.9 |
99 |
102 |
The '2Win' ratings show the figure a team needs to achieve
in order to cover against the posted spread for the game.
Carolina
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 14 |
STL |
-5.5 |
20 |
7 |
99.9 |
95.8 |
89 |
105 |
| 13 |
@NO |
+1.5 |
32 |
21 |
98.8 |
92.2 |
84 |
106 |
| 12 |
TB |
+2.5 |
21 |
14 |
98.4 |
100.8 |
94 |
104 |
| 11 |
ARI |
-3 |
35 |
10 |
94.9 |
100.2 |
72 |
122 |
| 10 |
@SF |
+1 |
37 |
27 |
92.4 |
88.2 |
79 |
101 |
| 9 |
OAK |
-6.5 |
24 |
27 |
92.0 |
89.1 |
98 |
83 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
+8 |
17 |
23 |
92.3 |
104.5 |
95 |
101 |
| 7 |
SD |
-3 |
6 |
17 |
93.3 |
104.3 |
107 |
90 |
|
-0.6 |
24 |
18 |
95.3 |
96.9 |
90 |
101 |
Away Ave. Fig = 102
Home Ave. Fig = 101
Atlanta
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 14 |
OAK |
-7.5 |
35 |
10 |
97.1 |
92.6 |
75 |
114 |
| 13 |
@TB |
+1.5 |
0 |
27 |
99.8 |
100.5 |
123 |
76 |
| 12 |
NO |
-9.5 |
24 |
21 |
99.3 |
91.8 |
99 |
91 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
-2.5 |
14 |
10 |
98.8 |
102.5 |
91 |
109 |
| 10 |
TB |
-3.5 |
24 |
14 |
97.2 |
98.8 |
90 |
105 |
| 8 |
@DEN |
+6.5 |
41 |
28 |
95.7 |
106.7 |
79 |
122 |
| 7 |
@KC |
+3.5 |
10 |
56 |
104.3 |
95.6 |
147 |
52 |
| 6 |
SD |
-5.5 |
21 |
20 |
104.5 |
106.0 |
106 |
104 |
|
-2.1 |
21 |
23 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
101 |
97 |
Away Ave. Fig = 90
Home Ave. Fig = 104
This is how I want to handicap.
Carolina's been streaking, with five straight 100+ Figs and a good 102 average on the road. Atlanta's more inconsistent, with some huge figs and some low figs. The Falcons are much better at home though with a 104 average.
Both teams look like they can hit the '2Win' figure. The key may be in the Fig. allowed to opponents: Carolina has held opponents to a <100 Figure for seven straight games, and given up just an average 90 figure. Atlanta has allowed opponents to do better, although if you take out the 147 aberration in the game with KC their average is just a 94 figure allowed.
There are all kinds of directions to go from here. Looking for bounces, looking for "teams for course" by adding in field surface columns into the PP, weather, etc. etc.
I don't have all the answers now, but just wait until next season!
(If you can't wait, bet Carolina +3.5.)
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, part I
Week 14: The Falcon, part II
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