Guest Analysis
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We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
Due to popular demand, we are bringing back "The Falcon" for one last appearance.
The Falcon, part IV
I want one number that tells me how well a team played in a game.
I want PP's (Past Performances) for NFL teams that have the same structure as horse racing PP's you'd find in a Daily Racing Form.
I want to use the same lingo and theories of horseplayers: new top, bounce, horse for course, bad trip. I am convinced the road to riches follows along a similar path in football that it does with horses.
I'm working on it. I'm not there yet, but I'm working on it.
Here is kind of what I have in mind:
Falcon PP's: NY Giants at Cincinnati (-6 )
| Week |
Away |
Current
Pwr |
Home |
Current
Pwr |
Away
2Win |
Home
2Win |
| 16 |
NYG |
94.9 |
CIN |
98.8 |
96 |
98 |
The '2Win' ratings show the figure a team needs to achieve
in order to cover against the posted spread for the game.
NY Giants
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 15 |
PIT |
+10 |
30 |
33 |
95.2 |
108.3 |
101 |
102 |
| 14 |
@BAL |
+9.5 |
14 |
37 |
97.1 |
100.8 |
117 |
80 |
| 13 |
@WAS |
+2.5 |
7 |
31 |
99.6 |
96.6 |
120 |
75 |
| 12 |
PHI |
+7 |
6 |
27 |
101.9 |
111.3 |
125 |
87 |
| 11 |
ATL |
+2.5 |
10 |
14 |
102.5 |
98.8 |
109 |
91 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
-2.5 |
14 |
17 |
103.2 |
99.8 |
103 |
99 |
| 9 |
CHI |
-9.5 |
21 |
28 |
105.2 |
97.4 |
115 |
87 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
+7 |
34 |
13 |
102.6 |
108.2 |
78 |
132 |
|
+3.3 |
17 |
25 |
100.9 |
102.7 |
108 |
94 |
Away Ave. Fig = 97
Home Ave. Fig = 92
Cincinnati
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
For |
Agn |
TeamPwr |
Opp.Pwr |
Opp.Fig |
TeamFig |
| 15 |
BUF |
+1 |
17 |
33 |
99.0 |
102.7 |
118 |
83 |
| 14 |
@NE |
+11 |
28 |
35 |
99.2 |
113.9 |
103 |
109 |
| 13 |
@BAL |
+7 |
27 |
26 |
98.7 |
101.3 |
94 |
105 |
| 12 |
CLE |
-5 |
58 |
48 |
98.1 |
97.8 |
91 |
104 |
| 11 |
PIT |
+4.5 |
14 |
19 |
97.7 |
109.0 |
105 |
101 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
+3 |
17 |
10 |
96.2 |
100.6 |
86 |
110 |
| 9 |
DAL |
+1.5 |
26 |
3 |
92.4 |
93.1 |
72 |
113 |
| 8 |
@TEN |
+4 |
20 |
27 |
93.3 |
93.2 |
97 |
89 |
|
+3.4 |
26 |
25 |
96.8 |
101.4 |
96 |
102 |
Away Ave. Fig = 103
Home Ave. Fig = 100
This is how I want to handicap.
Bengals were rolling with six straight 100+ Figs until last week. Yet the 83 rating against the Bills was unlucky: Buffalo scored one touchdown on special teams from recovering a blocked punt in the end zone, and a defensive score from returning an interception. The game wasn't close, but those two plays early on put Cincinnati in a hole.
Carolina's been streaking, with five straight 100+ Figs and a good 102 average on the road. Atlanta's more inconsistent, with some huge figs and some low figs. The Falcons are much better at home though with a 104 average.
Giants had a good game last week, but Eli's era as the starter now reads 91-87-75-80-102. Can you spot the aberration? It could be that Manning is finally getting at ease with the speed of the NFL, but I'm not so sure. Let him show us a good game on the road first. Either way the Giants have allowed 100+ figs to their opponent in seven straight games, and since Cincinnati has a 98 'to win' fig that is significant.
There are all kinds of directions to go from here. Looking for bounces, looking for "teams for course" by adding in field surface columns into the PP, weather, etc. etc.
I don't have all the answers now, but just wait until next season!
(If you can't wait, bet Cincinnati -6.)
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, part I
Week 14: The Falcon, part II
Week 15: The Falcon, part III
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