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We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
Big Al McMordie
Big Al's Sportsline
The final weeks of the NFL Regular Season offer technical handicappers some of the best opportunities to make money. This is due in part to many teams being over-valued because they're fighting to make the Playoffs, or under-valued because bettors assume they won't put forth their best effort. I have about 50 Late Season systems, but here are a couple of my favorite ones.
In the final three weeks of the season, play on any home underdog (or PK) off a straight-up loss, if they did not cover the spread in that loss, and they're matched up against a non-division foe. This system's record is 70-38 ATS since 1980, and has two plays this week:
Tennessee +3 over Detroit
Washington +4.5 over Minnesota
And there is one tightener to this system which improves the 70-38 ATS record to a nifty 54-23 ATS, and that is to only take teams whose win percentage is more than .230 percentage points worse than their foes. Neither Tennessee nor Washington fall into this tightener, as the Redskins' win percentage is .333 (compared to .533 for the Vikings), and the Titans' win percentage is .266 (compared to .400 for the Lions). Still, it's something to keep in mind when you review games in the final few weeks of the season. I love taking teams who are substantially worse than their opponent.
Let's take a look at another Late Season angle which focuses on games between teams that are completely out of the Playoff race. Well, maybe not this year, but in most seasons. What we want to do is Play on the 'Under' in the final two weeks of the season, if both teams have a win percentage of less than .428. In other words, both teams will have lost at least 9 games going into the contest. This system flies in the face of a myth held by many gamblers, which is to take the 'Over' in games between two lousy teams. I can't tell you how many times I have heard people say the game was going to be high-scoring since both teams were out of the playoffs and wouldn't play tough defense. Well, let's explode that myth. Since 1980, there have been 65 games between two poor teams in the final two weeks of the season. The record is 46 'Unders', 17 'Overs', and 2 pushes. This angle was 3-0 last week, and has three more plays this week:
Arizona/Tampa Bay 'Under' 38
New York Giants/Dallas 'Under' 37.5
Tennessee/Detroit 'Under' 45
Certainly, there's nothing wrong with 46-17-2, but we can improve that number to 31-6-2 by focusing on games with a line between 30 and 40.5 points. That tightener would knock out the Tennessee/Detroit game, since that total is 45 points.
For our next angle, let's take a look at the performance of .900 or better teams in the final four weeks of the Regular season. I like to Play against any .900 or better team that's matched up against a foe off a win from Game 13 forward. These teams are a poor 4-14 ATS, which makes sense because NFL teams with no more than one loss generally either have little to play for in the final four weeks, or they're over-valued. This system has had three plays already this year (with two wins), and has one last play this week:
Buffalo -8.5 over Pittsburgh
There is also a tightener in this system which moves our 14-4 record to a spotless 9-0 ATS, and it's simply to fade teams who are off a win of more than seven points. Last week, the Steelers bested Baltimore 20-7, so Bill Cowher's crew falls squarely into this negative 0-9 situation.
Al McMordie is among the most honored technical handicappers in the country. In this current 2004 NFL season, Al won the prestigious Stardust Invitational handicapping contest in Las Vegas. Over the last 13 years, he has won numerous awards for his analysis of Football, Basketball, and Baseball. Al is a featured handicapper both on National TV and Radio, as well as at the internet's most prestigious gambling web sites. Additionally, in 2002, Big Al was featured in FHM Magazine. Big Al McMordie can be contacted at 800-524-4250 or via his web site at BigAl.com, with free selections at http://www.bigal.com/free
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting
Week 8: Armchair Analysis
Week 9: Scott Kellen
Week 10: Trace Fields
Week 11: Kevin Lewis
Week 12: Dan Gordon
Week 13: The Falcon, part I
Week 14: The Falcon, part II
Week 15: The Falcon, part III
Week 16: The Falcon, part IV