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Week 2 in the NFL: Be Wary of your Instincts

My theme for week 2 is something I often promote. Be careful about your gut instincts. We now have one (and only one) week on which to react. Public perceptions are based on what happened last week and that can be very dangerous. The public has a short memory and right now they have one game for each team to analyze. If we are aware of this fact, we can use it to our profitable advantage. Based on last week, here's what I am guessing you have heard around the water cooler this week:

"I told you Carolina was a fluke last year!"
"Wow. Cleveland must be pretty good."
"Denver is Super Bowl bound. You watch."
"Minnesota's going to put up 30 points per game all season long."
"Nothing's changed in Kansas City. They're doomed."

While some of these statements may be true, others are not (don't forget how New England started last season). However, I'm not interested at this point in making predictions about Super Bowl contenders or pretenders or even taking sides on the above statements. My point is this: some of the spreads this week are not accurate due to public (mis)perception and as a result provide excellent value. They reflect the fact that the public has overreacted to last week's events. We will use this to our advantage this week by identifying select games in which public perception is disconnected with reality AND we have other reasons to like the underrated teams.

I recommend this: Check your gut at the door in week 2. If a game jumps out at you as a lock, pause and think about how much your opinion is based on something that happened last week. The most dangerous situation is one in which your instinct and gut feel going into week one was confirmed. It's human nature: we are now feeling pretty confident in our prediction capabilities and we see an "easy pick" this week. Beware.

Here's one of my best bets this week:

MIAMI +5  vs.  Cincinnati

Miami is in trouble this season. They lost Ricky Williams and now they have a quarterback controversy. They also got manhandled by the Titans last week. What a perfect time to go with them. Yes, I said with them. For these reasons they are getting five points in a game they could easily win outright. Head coach Dave Wannstedt has had it beat into his head what a bad idea it was to yank Fiedler after one half last week. I think he sticks with Feely in this one throughout the game. I also think the team regroups after realizing it wasn't the absolute end of the world to play a game without Ricky Williams. The Dolphins played a horrible game against Tennessee, committing 14 penalties and committing three turnovers. If they can correct some of those errors, Miami has a very good shot in this one. The Dolphins still have one of the best defenses in the league and are historically very tough in the early part of the season (31-9 SU in September over last ten years). They haven't gone 0-2 to start the season in 20 years! I like this matchup for other reasons. The Dolphins are perfect against the Bengals in their last nine meetings dating back to 1977 and Cincinnati is riding a 2-9 ATS streak following a road loss. The Dolphins offense can get healthy against Cincinnati who surrendered a whoping 219 rushing yards last week to the Jets. Carson Palmer played very well last week but history is on our side. Rookie quarterbacks typically fare poorly in the NFL and Miami's defense as I mentioned is top notch. Visiting teams in a week 2 matchup of winless teams cover the spread 68% of the time. Also, road teams that scored very few points in week one when facing a team that surrendered a ton of points cover the spread at a 71% clip. I like Miami at +5 and I also think they can win the game outright which would provide a payoff of about +185 on a money-line bet.

Good Luck this Weekend!

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The Wunderdog has been handicapping NFL games for over 15 years and specializes in picking underdogs (with the occasional underrated favorite). He publishes a free weekly newsletter, available on his website, with an underdog pick each week of the NFL season.