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Change OVER Constancy
Many of the statistical and fundamental approaches to handicapping are grounded on the assumption of constancy. In comparing a given matchup, the bettor analyzes data that show which team has the most yards per pass, the best average rush, the higher percentage of successful plays, the best red zone numbers, and so on. Logic suggests that where there is a statistical edge, there may also be a wagering edge.

But looking at averages in this way can pose several serious dilemmas. The first is that it is not clear to most people how these statistical edges translate into points in estimating a betting line. The second is that these edges most often lead you in the direction of the favorites especially as the season wears on. One only needs to look at one of twominutewarning.coms' favorite and best tools the Drive Stats Overlays to see that the vast majority of predicted scores side with the favorites (though the best wagering opportunities are on the underdogs). We know that rare, indeed, is the bettor who can lay more than 3 points in game after game, week after week, and stay in the black. The third and most troubling issue is that most (but not all) statistical approaches are grounded on the assumption of constancy not change.

Thus many players seem shocked when all the data says New Orleans should crush Arizona and instead Arizona crushes New Orleans or that Baltimore should handle Kansas City and instead Kansas City dominates the Ravens. Each week in the NFL there usually are three or more games that appear to defy rationality. What every seasoned bettor knows is that teams change, sometimes radically from week to week, and one must look at, beyond, and through all the data to unlock the door to profits. My approach to handicapping is an interpretive one. I look at each matchup and consider on a case-by-case basis what's going on with that team at this point in the season. I believe that you only have an edge when your opinion is likely to differ from public perception in some important way. Which teams are changing is a more important question to me than which teams are staying the same because change is the source of the richest opportunities. Of course, I look at data, some of the same data at which everybody else looks , but I probably look at it with a different set of questions that many other people are likely to ask.

Motivational Game of the Week

San Diego +3 OVER Jacksonville.
Chargers are in an excellent spot to get their third win in this spot. Jaguars have played four down-to-the wire games including the last two against division rivals Tennessee and Indianapolis. They looked drained at the end of their last game and now must fly to the West Coast and take on a spirited and surprising Chargers team that has a chance to go above .500. Flying 3000 miles or so to face the Chargers after playing your two biggest rivals is not an inspiring activity. Thus, there is a real question in my mind about how the deflation of losing to the Colts will weigh on the Jaguars.

This does not appear to be a spot for a peak performance by the Jaguars. The last two teams to lose to the Colts, the Packers and the Titans each fell flat the following week. On the other hand, the Chargers appear to be peaking and have a lot of momentum having lost only to the 3-0 Jets and the 3-1 Broncos in Denver. Jaguars are in the dreaded pattern of road, home, road, home, road while Chargers play third home game in four weeks. Moreover, a number of statistical indicators suggest that the Chargers should be favored in this game. They outgain the Jaguars by a full yard per play and the Jaguars have been very bad at translating opportunities into points. There is nothing to suggest that the Jaguars can play at a peak level in this game; they are likely to change for the worse. On the other hand, there are good reasons to belive the Chargers will play at or near their best level. Take the points.

OVERLAY is a Host Handicapper for SharpSportsBetting.com, a web site founded on the principles of its proprietor, Stanford Wong, and featuring an interactive community of serious and successful sports bettors. OVERLAY has been posting selections for the NFL and the NBA for the past two seasons and his NFL record over that span is 138-106-5 (56.5%) while his NBA mark stands at 228-182-5 (55.6%).