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We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
This Week's Guest:
of Whose Your Daddy!?! Sports
One of the keys to our handicapping approach is data. We put a lot of emphasis on analyzing data and piecing it together; however, unlike the "BS" BCS, we know that subjective factors coupled INTELLIGENTLY (are you reading this NCAA) is far more powerful than just an opinion with no facts or just facts without an opinion. When you can not only find positive systems and angles - notice I did not say trends as that is a subject for a later date - along with a strong opinion ... you are going to pick a winner no matter if the team covers or not. Knowing that you were right is probably the greatest reward of sports betting; I have known bettors who cashed tickets for $10 but have never stopped talking about how right they were. To us, that's the juice. Throw away the money because in the end, we are driven by that feeling of "we kicked Vegas's ass."
One difference of our approach to others is that we believe firmly in weighting. Weighting means betting unequal amounts on plays dependent upon the factors surrounding the play. In our research, we have found several angles and systems that generate 55% winners on a yearly basis. That is not to say that each year these tools will consistently hit 55%; it means that over the course of the past they have done well and especially in recent seasons. There are literally dozens of tools in our “handicapper’s toolbox” that we break out specifically for certain situations, certain weeks, playoffs, etc. The point of these is to give us as much information about positive situations as possible. Then, much like the BCS, we take into account subjective factors that we see in a weekly matchup: injuries, weather, must-win situations, over-rated and under-rated teams, defensive schemes, offensive schemes, etc. All of this information is eventually compiled into our final plays that we deliver on Saturday. This week, we had to move up that schedule so the play that follows may not be exactly as how we would post them on Saturday, but this is a good indication.
As I sit here on Wednesday afternoon, our top-rated play this week would be:
4* Green Bay +3 (-125)
After week 1 of the season, Green Bay sat at 1-0 with a +2 turnover ratio. Five weeks later and the same Pack team is now 1-4 with a -9 TO ratio. Is it a wonder this team has gone from leader of the Pack to bottom feeders in the course of 4 weeks? Ahman Green has been saddled with acute fumbleitis while Brett Favre has looked anything but super. The Lions on the other hand have traded barbs with the best of them and even ended the Falcons winning streak at 4 this last Sunday. While Green Bay sits near the bottom of the league at a -9 TO ration, Detroit sits on the other end with a solid +9 TO ratio. Last week, Mike Vick and the Falcons turned the ball over 4 times and still was in the game to the very end. That is not the mark of a good team. Detroit does have an opportunistic defense but their achilles heal will be the offense; teams cannot get it done consistently averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per carry. Harrington and his receivers - specifically rookie Roy Williams - have had a breakout season, but even with the attention being lavished on these young upstarts is still 31st in the league in yards per game. Why is this important? It's been the turnovers that have allowed Detroit to prosper so far this year. Getting a team like Green Bay - whose been handing the ball out like leftover Christmas candy - may seem like a strong play on the Lions; however, Green Bay will have to game plan this week to he strengths of their team. Detroit is a young team that is riding a wave of good fortune and Green Bay is a veteran team that finds itself in a must-win situation.
Today I read that Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline has written off Green Bay's season and smiled. First, anyone who believe Pete Prisco is a fool. Second, anyone who believes in the legitimacy of the Lions is a damned fool. OK, that may be a bit harsh given this team has shown some incredible moxy, but they've been doing this on a lot of smoke and mirrors with very little substance. Throw in their most productive wide receiver is questionable at best and they have still yet to find a ground game, and I think this game has home upset written all over it. Further muddying the waters is every sports fan with a tv watched Green Bay get dismantled on Monday night and Favre look like Clark Kent than the Superman of old. With every sportswriter in the country predicting the fall of Green Bay, now is the time that I see the most value. The Packers have always been able to rally around Favre, but this entire team has lacked a sense of urgency. Monday night went a long way in instilling that urgency. The Packers are more talented offensively than the Lions and Dick Jauron - Lion's defensive coordinator - could only stop Favre once in a five year career coaching Chicago. Favre scored so much and so often, Green Bay began referring to the Bear's defense as "the groupies". Green Bay gets back on track this week by rekindling the fire and a steady dose of Ahman left, Ahman right, and Ahman up the middle; mixed with a little Favre just to remind Dick Jauron who his daddy really is.
So far this season we sit at a comfortable 23-14 on the year. Anyone who enjoyed this article and wants to join our newsletter group can take advantage of this offer: join our newsletter group, mention this article, and all of the premium plays - finalized on Saturday and released by 7pm EST - will be yours free for the weekend.
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay