Guest Analysis
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We are proud of our efforts here at TwoMinuteWarning, but we also recognize the hard work put in by many other bright minds who cover the NFL. We're well connected throughout the industry, and have a number of notable friends and/or longtime subscribers who will grace our guest handicapper page.
Due to a scheduling snafu on our end, we have
Two Guest Handicappers this week!
- Gene (retired proprietor of Gene's Pro Football Picks)
We’ve shut down our web site this year, after 9 years in the on line handicapping business, and retired. (Tahiti in September was better than sweating over our computer.) But the people at TwoMinuteWarning are good friends, so we’ve agreed to do an occasional guest column. We like to make picks, but we also like to talk about handicapping patterns.
This year we happened to look at early home and visiting team results and had a surprise. Home teams have done very badly against the spread (ATS). My data shows they've only won 35 of 85 games ( 41.2%) this year. This led us to take a quick look
at the past five years. Here's what we found:
First 8 Weeks
2004 35 of 85 = 41.2%**
2003 47 of 111 = 42.3%
2002 53 of 113 = 46.9%
2001 57 of 108 = 52.8%
2000 45 of 110 = 40.9%
1999 45 of 110 = 40.9%
'99 through '03
247 of 552 = 44.7%
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Remaining 9 Weeks
78 of 132 = 59.1%
70 of 137 = 51.1%
63 of 128 = 49.2%
66 of 132 = 50.0%
76 of 128 = 59.4%
353 of 657 = 53.7%
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Full Regular Season
125 of 243 = 51.4%
123 of 250 = 49.2%
120 of 236 = 50.8%
111 of 242 = 45.9%
121 of 238 = 50.8%
600 of 1209 = 49.6%
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Looks impressive, right? But, if you go back just one year, to 1998, you’ll find that early home teams won 59.4% of their games! And, as we went further back in the 90s, we found no support for any apparent pattern.
However, it’s important to realize that sometimes things change and data from too far back may be irrelevant. Perhaps these recent figures reflect the way teams change so quickly each year under the full effect of the salary cap. This argument might run as follows: at the start of the season, bettors have questions as to the real strength of the teams - - many of which have changed considerably during the off season. So, they fall back on betting home teams, as the best play in a murky situation. The odds makers, now understand this mentality - - perhaps because of 1998 - - and have responded by adjusting Home Team points downward. The result: visitors have been the best early season bets for the past (almost) 6 years.
But, take care! Home teams haven’t been winning, true, but the edge for all visiting teams is still pretty small - - only 55.3%. When you need to win 52.4% of the time just to break even, 55.3% won’t make you rich.
Consequently, we don’t advise you to load up on visiting teams just because of this data. But, if you have reliable "angles" that tell you to bet on a particular visitor, this data says, "Go ahead." And, If your angle picks a home team, perhaps you ought to reduce the size of your action.
This Week’s Picks:
Our favorite is Buffalo +6 at Baltimore. This is based on a pattern that likes Visiting Dogs the week after they’ve covered as favorites (which Buffalo did last week.) Other factors are involved in defining this pattern but being a Visiting Dog after winning as a favorite is the main variable.
Another visitor we like is Seattle –7 at ARIZONA. Explaining what’s behind this pick would bore you to tears and take too much space. Simply put, Seattle fits a pattern that has a long history of winning (as do all the patterns, or "angles", we use.)
Our third pick is CLEVELAND +7 1/2 vs. Philadelphia. We have three different patterns that pick CLEVELAND, so we’re going to ignore the above chart and go with the Browns, even though they are at home.
Good Luck!.
Gene,
Retired Proprietor of Gene’s Pro Football Picks
- MTi Sports Forecasting
Seattle -7 over ARIZONA - In horse racing, a common handicapping strategy is taking a horse that is dropping in class. The same strategy can be used in the NFL. Here the Seahawks are experiencing a class-drop as they are facing the Cardinals off a game vs the Patriots. We have a system that applies to just this situation. The league is 8-0 ATS since 1989 on the road vs a divisional opponent after a double digit loss to a non-divisional opponent if the line is more than a touchdown lower (drop in class) than their previous game as long as the O/U line is at least 33. The Seahawks qualify for this one as they were getting 3' in New England and now they are laying 7 in Arizona. Note that this system could be even better than 8-0, but the database at KillerSports.com only goes back to 1989. Teams in this situation have covered by an average of 10.3 ppg.
In addition to this perfect system, we have numerous team trends indicating that the Seahawks are the side on which to be. Seattle has been deadly against teams that can't rush the ball as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five vs a team that has a season-to-date average of fewer than 110 yards rushing per game. Also, Seattle has been great on the road vs a divisional opponent, going 5-0 ATS their last five, covering by an average of a whopping 14.2 ppg.
The Seahawks are of two losses and Arizona has been terrible against a team that needs to turn around a recent downward trend in performance. For example, the Cardinals are 1-10 ATS as a 3+ dog vs a team that has allowed 24+ points for two straight weeks. The Seahawks have allowed 34 and 30 points for two straight and will be ready here. Three weeks ago, the Seahawks were 3-0 and looked like the sure winner in the NFC West. Now they are 3-2 and battling the Rams, who are 4-2 overall and 3-0 in their division. For the Cardinals to win a game, they need their opponent to be in a letdown situation -- one in which they won't be taken too seriously or be perceived as a threat. This is not the case here. Seattle needs this divisional game badly and will play fiercely on both sides of the ball to ensure that they do not drop to 0.500. Lay the TD as the Cardinals have trouble getting to double digits.
FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 Arizona 6
MTi Sports Forecasting handicaps only the NFL and NBA -- no college. Their records are documented by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City and MTi's plays are available at mtisports.com
Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
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