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Most NFL bettors these days are well informed. They know how the lines are set, and why they are set where they are in most cases. But, what statistics and methods are key in determining who will end up covering the spread? Is fundamental analysis the best avenue, or should we be looking more at ‘ team momentum’ and the influence that certain situations may have on a teams play in any given week?

These are very tough questions, and I have personally been chasing down the answers over the past 9+ years. Like a physicist trying to nail down a ‘grand unifying theory’, I have been working with different combinations of handicapping methodologies in an effort to produce a system that can reliably produce 57-60% NFL winners against the spread, over the course of an entire season—a winning percentage that will easily place you at the top of your NFL office pool, or net you a very nice profit wagering on individual games at 10/11 odds.

The seeds for this endeavor were essentially planted in 1995, when, tired of losing week after week in my NFL office pool, I decided to try and utilize the knowledge gained from my recently completed college courses in statistics and probability to come up with an accurate way of measuring team strength, thereby exposing weak point spreads, and restoring my good name at the office at the same time.

My years of research since that point have led me to settle on 3 different methods for handicapping NFL games that work hand-in-hand to predict future NFL outcomes. Here they are with a detailed explanation of each:

Team Efficiency Ratings

This is the basis, or backbone of my handicapping system. This type of analysis falls into the ‘fundamental’ category of handicapping methods.

TER's are a more up-to-date version of the old fashioned "Power Rating" and I calculate them by measuring the overall ability of each team to move the ball down the field when on offense—stop their opponent from moving the ball on defense—and how these statistics are translated into points on the scoreboard. Hence the term: Efficiency Rating. TER's usually fall somewhere between -20 and +20.

The main function of my Team Efficiency Rating is to expose a teams true "core skill level" and also reveal how they match-up man-for-man with their opponent, through the comparison of statistical "differentials"—or the net difference between the same key statistics for both teams.

We have all seen games where a team won something like 31-10—perhaps not so much due to superior ball movement—but, more as a result of 3 key turnovers by their opponent, resulting in 17 of their 31 points. On the surface, this game appears very one-sided; however, the use of my Team Efficiency Ratings will probably reveal a much more evenly played contest after the turnovers—and any other factors disguising what really happened on the field—are removed from the equation.

While many smart bettors will be able to put the deceiving outcome of this game into proper context, many other bettors will subsequently "over-bet" a team coming off an inflated win and on the flip-side—"under-bet" a team that suffered a seemingly one-sided loss. This will have the effect of causing inaccurate point spreads the following week (or weeks) that do not represent the true ability of all teams involved.

This leads us to the final step of my mathematical calculation where I combine the TER for both teams along with the posted point spread (SPR). In addition, I also factor in an estimation of home field advantage. This number will vary from week to week and is also adjusted for Sunday night and Monday night games.

The team with the higher total after all my calculations are complete has what I call a Soft Line Advantage. Teams with the Soft Line Advantage are usually good bets. But in some situations, I will side with the other team. To understand why, you must understand my 2nd handicapping tool.

Team Momentum Analysis

This method works closely with the results of my TER’s to try and gauge whether an individual team’s momentum is about to reverse direction, pick up speed, or stay on its current course perhaps.

Almost every week we see heavy favourites barely winning, or even losing straight up, and underdogs that come out playing hard against their more skilled competition. Is this a direct result of only fundamental factors, or is there a more intangible reason behind these unexpected outcomes?

The answer falls towards the latter, and the careful analysis of what level, or amount, of Soft Line Advantage that a team has, in comparison with the result of each team’s last game (i.e. win-loss-tie) does give us a better indication of what sort of effort we may expect from a team in their upcoming contest.

Let me give you an example:

One particular game from Week 14 of the 2003 season had Carolina (-1) visiting Atlanta. Carolina had a record of 8-4 and was coming into the game off a SU loss, while Atlanta was a dismal 2-10 and also arriving at this juncture off a SU loss.

Despite their season win-loss record, Carolina sported a less than spectacular Team Efficiency Rating of -5.81 while Atlanta’s home-field-adjusted rating was a decent 3.53. Atlanta therefore carried a Soft Line Advantage of +10.34 or (+3.53 minus -5.81 minus the spread of -1).

In most cases a team with a soft-line advantage of +10.34 is a very good bet but in one instance, they are actually not the best bet. Teams with an SLA of roughly +10 ½ are 10-5 ATS historically when both teams are off a SU loss (as was the case in this game). But, if both Atlanta and Carolina were entering this game off SU wins, the record of a team with an SLA in this region would be only 6-11 ATS.

Reading team momentum is not an exact science and the negative effect caused by the combination of Atlanta’s +10.34 Team Efficiency Rating edge and the scenario of both teams coming off a SU win could be the result of a number of factors.

Regardless, this combination of fundamental and situational analysis does offer some real predictability when analyzing future outcomes (Atlanta ended up winning this game 20-14 SU—not much of a surprise for me!)

Team Situational Analysis
The situations that I look at lie outside the framework of my primary handicapping methods (Team Efficiency Ratings and Team Momentum Analysis) and mostly focus on factors that either:

A) Consistently influence the betting patterns of the general public. Or

B) May cause teams to experience a "let-down".

It has taken the better part of 10 seasons for me to isolate the small number of situations that have definite predictive value concerning future outcomes (unlike the thousands of trends that tantalize bettors with temporary and fleeting success). Situational analysis is not for the faint-of-heart and the lines that separate temporary trends, from the results of solid, repeatable situations, are often blurred.

Having said that—situational analysis does have its place in any professional handicappers tool-box; however, I certainly do not put as much stock into their results as say—my Team Efficiency ratings, and I would never call a game simply based on situational analysis alone.

Here is a good example of a quality situation that continues to win year after year (I have roughly 50 of these that I use each season):

Teams coming off a SU loss as a dog in which they outscored their opponent by >7 pts in the 4th quarter, but held the ball less than their opponent overall are 34-10 ATS since 1995, and 3-0 ATS in 2004, and 8-1 ATS in the past 3 years.

What this situation tells us is that: Dogs that play well in the 4th quarter of their last game, despite losing and generally being outplayed (as evidenced by holding the ball for less time than their opponent) seem to get an emotional boost for their next game. As I said above—I would not call a game based on this sort of analysis alone. But, there are certain situations that come up during each NFL season that must be taken into consideration.

Now that you have a good background on how I analyze games, let’s get into 2 different upcoming games for Week 8.

Jacksonville (5-2) at Houston (3-3) Team SPR TER Total Soft Line Advantage Jacksonville - -1.24 -1.24 Houston + 4.54 Houston -1 4.30 * 3.30 *Adjusted for home field advantage.

SLA Range Last week's result (Hou - Jac) Low High Win-Win Win-Loss Loss-Win Loss-Loss 3.75 5.00 11 - 17 14 - 17 5 - 10 7 - 14 Momentum Situation—Houston is in a negative situation that is 11 - 17 ATS since 2000 concerning teams with a SLA of between 3.75 and 5.00 , coming off a win, and now facing an opponent off a win.

Jacksonville came up big for me last week and I expect much of the same versus Houston in Week 8. While Houston has the Team Efficiency Rating advantage (4.30 to –1.24 for the Jaguars), this edge combined with the fact both teams are coming off a win puts the Texans into a very negative 11-17 ATS momentum position. In addition to Houston’s poor momentum, they also find themselves in an 8-34 ATS angle concerning teams coming off a SU dog win of >7 pts over a divisional foe—and now facing another divisional opponent. When this angle, and my momentum analysis, are on the same side (as in this case), they are an amazing 25-2 ATS combined. To top it all of Jacksonville will also benefit from a 27-7 ATS angle that plays on decent teams coming off a SU road win of 3 pts. Armchair Analysis.com Selection: Jacksonville +1 Need help with my analysis?

Baltimore (4-2) at Philadelphia (6-0) Team SPR TER Total Soft Line Advantage Baltimore - 12.05 12.05 Baltimore + 14.10 Philadelphia -7 4.94 * -2.06 *Adjusted for home field advantage.

SLA Range Last week's result (Bal - Phi) Low High Win-Win Win-Loss Loss-Win Loss-Loss 13.75 15.00 7 - 2 1 - 10 2 - 0 4 - 1 Momentum Situation—Baltimore is in a positive situation that is 7 - 2 ATS since 2000 concerning teams with a SLA of between 13.75 and 15.00 , coming off a win, and now facing an opponent off a win.

This is yet another game in Week 8 where all my methods are pointing in the same direction—towards Baltimore in this case. The Ravens are the most efficient team in the NFL right now at putting points on the board with a TER of 12.05. Philly is no slouch at +4.94 but Baltimore’s big edge of +14.61 (this includes the spread and HFA calculations) puts them into a solid 7-2 momentum situation. Philly will also be hurt by 2 very negative situations with records of 10-35 ATS and 7-27 respectively—the latter one involving favourites of 6 or more points with a season takeaway/giveaway average of > +1. Teams in this situation are already 1-5 ATS this year! Look for Baltimore’s defense to come up large and keep this game close. Armchair Analysis.com Selection: Baltimore +7 Need help with my analysis?

Good luck this weekend.

Dennis Erny

Since 1999 ArmchairAnalysis.com has provided cutting edge NFL point spread analysis and intelligent NFL picks that win on a consistent basis. Dennis Erny is the handicapper and owner of the site.

Guest Handicapper Archive:
Week 1: Dr. Bob
Week 2: Wunderdog
Week 3: Rick Needham
Week 4: Andy Iskoe
Week 5: Overlay
Week 6: Reed Lonteen
Week 7: Gene/Mti Sports Forecasting